Review of retail market:
In the past week (four trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by – 1.10% and – 3.06% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by – 0.27%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (four trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 1.65% and – 3.46% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 0.27%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 0.27%, ranking 16th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 14 of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose, and the top three industries were home appliances, real estate and construction, with an increase of 4.36%, 4.25% and 3.55% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 0.27%, ranking 16th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, 14 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries have risen. The top three industries are household appliances, real estate and construction, with an increase of 4.36%, 4.25% and 3.55% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were home appliance 3C chain, supermarket and trade, with an increase of 3.40%, 2.88% and 1.58% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are home appliance 3C chain, supermarket and trade, with an increase of 3.40%, 2.88% and 1.58% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2022), 67 companies rose, one company was flat and 25 companies fell. Over the past week, the top three companies were Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600861) and Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) , with increases of 46.63%, 21.82% and 13.76% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2022), 67 companies have increased, one company is flat and 25 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies with growth rates are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600861) and Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) , with growth rates of 46.63%, 21.82% and 13.76% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
In the first week of 2022, the retail sector was active, especially the emergence of small cap unpopular stocks. Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) benefited from the strong stock price of the digital currency concept, and the stock price performance of Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600861) is also considerable. However, from the perspective of the fundamental performance of the industry, the overall situation of the industry has not improved significantly. Therefore, we believe that the strong share prices of individual companies in the past week are due to: 1) the mandatory consumer category with positive CPI improvement; 2) The valuation of department store stocks is low, which has a certain space for valuation repair. At present, we are still more optimistic about gold jewelry and high-end Baijiu channel business. In addition, the supermarket sector will also have band opportunities. The e-commerce sector is still under great pressure in the short term, which is more suitable for long-term layout. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth of consumer demand did not meet expectations. The post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
