Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) );
Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and trade risk on oil price. Recommend excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter large-scale refining and layout C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking; Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas fell, LNG gas rose and coal price rose; The prices of C3, C4, aromatics, chemical fiber, polyurethane and plastics increased.
This week, China’s chemical price index CCPI + 1.5%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 5.1%, imported lpg-2.0%, domestic LNG gas + 4.1%, bituminous coal + 0.4%.
On the raw material side, the prices of C3, C4 and aromatics products increased, while the prices of C2 products decreased; On the product side, the prices of some chemical fiber, polyurethane and plastic products rose, while the prices of some chlor alkali, pesticide and amino acid products fell.
Oil prices rose this week, a new round of OPEC + meetings maintained the rhythm of production increase, and the tight supply of natural gas in Europe is difficult to solve.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 77.8 to 81.8 US dollars / barrel (up 5.1%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 75.2 to 78.9 US dollars / barrel (up 4.9%); US commercial crude oil inventories were 418 million barrels (Mom – 0.5%),
481 crude oil wells were drilled in the United States (mom + 0.2%). On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the new round of OPEC + meeting has decided to maintain a small increase in production of 400000 barrels / day in February, the U.S. crude oil production has stabilized, and it is difficult to release the potential supply increase space of Iran for the time being. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the recent global epidemic still shows signs of deterioration, but the data show that the actual impact of Omicron is weaker than expected, and the tight supply of natural gas in Europe is difficult to solve. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Federal Reserve is expected to shrink QE and raise interest rates this year, but there is no clear timetable for raising interest rates. The US dollar has maintained a narrow fluctuation recently, with limited impact on oil prices. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, although the Iranian side is full of sincerity in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, the United States has never made a positive statement. It is expected that the lifting of sanctions is still not easy, which is good for oil prices.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas generally declined sharply this week (12.30-01.05). NBP was – 26.70%, TTF was – 24.56%, HH was – 4.54% and AECO was – 2.97% month on month. In terms of spot, it goes in the same direction as futures, and HH spot is – 4.15% month on month; Canada AECO spot chain -0.74%, Europe TTF spot chain -53.75%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 10411 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 11.44%; the average sales price at the terminal was 5225 yuan / ton, with a chain comparison of – 163 yuan / ton (- 3.22%).
Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of December 31, the inventory of natural gas in the United States was 3195 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 31 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 0.96%, year-on-year ratio of – 4.60%), still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of December 31, the European natural gas inventory was 213.1 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 36.2 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 1.67%, year-on-year ratio of – 24.92%).
China’s price: the price of China’s main LNG producing areas rose slightly this week. As of January 6, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 4886 yuan / ton, up + 1.24% from last week; Consumer prices rose simultaneously. As of January 6, the average price of major LNG consumers was about 5273 yuan / ton, up + 4.50% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 5347 yuan / ton, up + 8.13% from last week. View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are NPG + 18%, n-butanol + 15%, epichlorohydrin + 14%, Phenol + 11%, epoxy resin + 10%, potassium chloride + 9%, butyl acetate + 9%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are acrylamide-11%, tetrachloroethylene-11%, ammonium sulfate-9%, dichloromethane-9%, acrylonitrile-9%, Kungfu acid-8% and phosphorus trichloride-8%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon, trichlorosilane, soda ash (light – 5%, heavy – 4%), vinyl acetate, EVA (photovoltaic grade) – 5%, etc. Chemicals related to the lithium industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 4%, battery grade + 5%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial ammonium phosphate (73%) + 1%, lithium hexafluorophosphate + 4%, etc.
Downstream manufacturers want to increase procurement, the supply side is still expected to reduce production, and the price of n-butanol rises.
N-butanol (East China) rose 15.3% to 9800 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the main downstream butyl acrylate manufacturers and plasticizer manufacturers have the intention to increase the purchase of n-butanol due to emergencies and their own product sales, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, after short-term shutdown fluctuations of two manufacturers and maintenance of a manufacturer in East China, the supply of n-butanol is still expected to reduce production, resulting in favorable supply.
Manufacturers actively enter the market, the supply of goods is tight, and the price of epichlorohydrin rises.
Epichlorohydrin (East China) rose 13.9% to 18000 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, affected by the price of bisphenol A and the upstream factors of the downstream epoxy resin market, downstream manufacturers actively enter the market; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current epichlorohydrin market is in short supply, individual enterprises in Shandong reduce the load, the transportation in East China and Zhejiang is blocked due to public health events, and the supply of goods on site is in short supply, forming a favorable situation.
Cost support still exists, and the supply of goods in the site is tight, pushing up the price of phenol.
Phenol (East China) rose 11.4% to 11200 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw material pure benzene (East China) rose 0.8% to 7380 yuan / ton this week to support the cost; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, there is resistance to high prices in the downstream this week; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, this week coincided with the return to the market after the festival, the port inventory decreased, a factory in Ningbo was blocked from picking up goods due to public health events, the on-site circulation and spot were tight, and the supplier’s shipment was pressureless.
The cost price rose and the downstream gas buying increased, supporting the price of epoxy resin.
Epoxy resin (E51, East China) rose 10.0% to 27600 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the raw material bisphenol A (East China) rose 7.9% to 18400 yuan / ton and epichlorohydrin (East China) rose 13.9% to 18000 yuan / ton this week, jointly supporting the cost; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the overall downstream demand has increased, and the demand for inventory and replenishment before the Spring Festival has formed a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current operating load of liquid epoxy resin in China is stable, the overall operating rate is maintained at about 80%, and the operating load of solid epoxy resin plant is about 50%, mainly for contract users.
Downstream procurement picked up, market supply was tight, and the price of potassium chloride rose.
Potassium chloride (60% powder, Qinghai) rose 9.4% to 3490 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the potassium chloride Market in Northeast Hebei and other places just needed to purchase this week has warmed up, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current market supply continues to be tight, the state reserve auction is suspended, the market supply is further reduced, the inventory of Salt Lake manufacturers remains low, and there is still the possibility of supply reduction in the later stage. The start-up of small factories in Qinghai is low, the supply of 57% content goods is tight, there are few available spot goods, and the import of border trade resumes, but the quantity of goods is small and the shipment is not smooth.
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation, lower downstream demand than expected, etc.
