Market review. As of January 7, 2022, Shenwan basic chemical industry fell by 3.35% this week, 0.96 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, and ranked 22nd among Shenwan 31 industries.
As for the seven sub sectors of Shenwan basic chemical industry, according to the performance of the recent week, the increase order is chemical fiber (+ 0.27%), chemical raw materials (- 1.29%), plastics (- 2.83%), chemicals (- 2.98%), agrochemical products (- 5.99%), rubber (- 9.00%) and non-metallic materials (- 9.29%).
Among the top gainers this week, Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) and Nanjing Red Sun Co.Ltd(000525) performed best, with increases of 26.84%, 16.03% and 15.57% respectively. Among the stocks with the highest decline this week, Shaanxi Meibang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(605033) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) and Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) performed the worst, with declines of – 29.61%, – 21.45% and – 20.93% respectively.
Rise and fall of chemical products: among the chemical products mainly tracked, the products with the top five price increases this week are phenol (+ 12.78%), bisphenol A (+ 11.82%), potassium chloride (+ 9.40%), butanone (+ 8.70%), coke (+ 7.89%), and the products with the top five price decreases are dichloromethane (- 8.88%), acrylonitrile (- 8.49%), yellow phosphorus (- 8.11%), butadiene (- 4.55%) Polybutadiene rubber (- 4.17%).
Weekly view of basic chemical industry: Recently, the prices of phenol and bisphenol A have increased significantly, mainly due to the cost support of raw materials and good downstream demand. If the new capacity of downstream PC and epoxy resin is successfully put into operation, the demand for bisphenol A is expected to rise, and there is a gap between supply and demand in the short and medium term, the price and profit of bisphenol A are supported, so we can pay attention to Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . The tackling of air pollution control in autumn and winter and the Winter Olympic Games will exert pressure on the pesticide supply side, and the prices of some pesticide products are expected to remain strong. In addition, the fundamentals of the downstream tire and modified plastics industry are expected to improve marginally in 2022, so it is recommended to pay attention. Meanwhile, the sweetener leader Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) with high certainty of performance growth in 2022 and reasonable current valuation can continue to be concerned. In addition, under the dual carbon target, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the upstream chemical materials of new energy with high demand certainty, such as PVDF, photovoltaic EVA particles, etc. Key target concerns:
Bisphenol A: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493)
Pesticide: Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (600486)
Tires: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (601966), Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) (002984), and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (601058)
Modified plastics: Kingfa Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(600143) (600143), Shanghai Pret Composites Co.Ltd(002324) (002324)
Sweetener: Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
\u3000\u3000PVDF： Lecron Industrial Development Group Co.Ltd(300343) （300343）
PV EVA: Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) (000301), Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) (003022)
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Product price and price difference fall; Intensified industry competition, etc.
