This week’s view: this week, Shenwan real estate sector rose 4.46%, significantly outperforming CSI 300 (- 2.39%), after the sharp rise, the sector valuation is in the 24.6% quantile in recent five years, and the safety margin is still sufficient. This week, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission released the operation of the banking and insurance industry from January to November 2021. At the end of November, real estate loans increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and remained stable as a whole. More than 90% of personal housing loans were used to support the first house. The growth rate of loans in the housing rental market was close to 5 times the average growth rate of various loans, which was a reflection of continuous policy guidance and support. In the follow-up consideration, the liquidity pressure of the industry has not been eliminated, and there is still room for policy fine-tuning and gradual implementation of support measures. In terms of investment suggestions, there is still room for short-term policy game. The medium and long-term industry bottoms out and stabilizes. The leading real estate enterprises will benefit more from the warmth of policies and stand out with comprehensive advantages. It is suggested to pay attention to Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) . The property management and business management sector has broad space, stable stock and strengthened independent development. Under the trend of increasing policy support and concentration, mainstream participants have great prospects. They are optimistic about property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength and continuous good operation, such as country garden service and poly property, as well as commercial operators occupying high-quality tracks in shopping centers and strong asset light output strength, Such as Xingsheng commerce, etc. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to waterproof faucet Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) .
Policy environment monitoring: 1) bancassurance: reasonable housing needs are further met; 2) Hefei: release the “14th five year plan” for housing development.
Market operation monitoring: 1) turnover fell month on month, and it is expected to decline steadily. Affected by the holiday filing, 35000 new houses and 8000 second-hand houses were sold this week (1.1-1.7), down 43% and 40% month on month. The average daily turnover of new houses in January decreased by 37.1% year-on-year, 18.7pct higher than that in December. With the completion of the year-end sprint of real estate enterprises, the transaction in January is expected to be lower than that in December, and the transaction in a single week is expected to be stable. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in December 2021, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 2.2pct to 77.4% month on month. 3) Inventory fell month on month, short-term or relatively stable. The inventory in 16 cities was 102.06 million square meters, down 1.8% month on month. Under the pressure of short-term supply slowing down and de industrialization, the inventory may be relatively stable. 4) Land transactions fell, the premium rate rebounded, and the proportion of the first line increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 12.323 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 15.307 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 45.6% and 72.1%; The transaction premium rate was 4.4%, up 1.3pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 24.2%, 47.2% and 28.5% respectively, with a month on month increase of 20.9pct, a decrease of 5.3pct and a decrease of 15.6pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: this week, domestic real estate enterprises issued bonds of 5.29 billion yuan, an increase of 3.05 billion yuan month on month, and overseas bonds of 139 million US dollars; The domestic and overseas issuance interest rate is 2.47% – 13.5%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is higher than the previous one. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 3.81 billion yuan this week, an increase of 500 million yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 4.46% this week, outperforming CSI 300 (- 2.39%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.71 times, and the valuation is in the quantile of 24.6% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north were China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) ; The top three net inflows of southbound funds are China overseas development, China Resources Land and rongchuang China.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Large scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
