This week's view:
Actively grasp the undervalued value, repair the market, bargain hunting layout high boom track. Since the beginning of 2022, the market has been in a state of shock and adjustment. This week, CSI 300 fell by 2.39%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 3.94%, ranking 11th among 28 primary sub industries; The pharmaceutical business in the sub sector rose by 1.29%; Sub sectors such as chemical pharmaceutical, biological products, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services all fell, of which medical services led the decline, with - 10.34%; The sub sectors of chemical pharmacy and traditional Chinese medicine decreased slightly, with - 1.29% and - 1.45% respectively. At present, the pharmaceutical sector is in the process of valuation equilibrium. We believe that the market will deduce for a period of time, and the opportunity of undervaluation repair is expected to continue. At the same time, with the recent continuous adjustment, the risks of cro, cdmo and other high valuation sectors have been released to a certain extent. Superimposed on the annual report forecast disclosure and the expectation of operation in the first quarter, the sector is expected to usher in a very appropriate allocation range. We continue to suggest to grasp two directions: fundamental improvement and valuation repair of undervalued sectors, such as traditional Chinese medicine, API, chain pharmacies, etc; High prosperity track after continuous adjustment, such as cro / cdmo, upstream of life sciences, medical services, etc.
Prospect of pharmaceutical annual report: actively layout subsidiaries with fast performance growth. This week Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) successively released performance forecasts. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 198.56% and 1840.81% respectively in 2021 (median). With entering the window period of performance forecast disclosure in mid and late January, sectors and companies with solid fundamentals and fast performance growth are expected to usher in upward catalysis. We have made a forward-looking forecast on the annual report performance of key companies, and it is suggested to focus on: 1) the "leading white horse" in the high prosperity track, such as Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) ; 2) Leading segments with high performance growth, such as Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Jafron Biomedical Co.Ltd(300529) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , etc. For detailed data, please contact Zhongtai pharmaceutical team.
Omicron became the mainstream strain, and enhanced vaccination was still effective. Omicron has spread rapidly since it was found. According to the data of who, as of January 4, Omicron strain had appeared in 128 countries and regions around the world. At present, Omicron has become the main strain, accounting for more than 80% in most countries. According to the research published by the national infectious diseases Medical Center (Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University) on emerging microbes & infections, the virus may still maintain a certain level of transmission after the third injection, but it will improve the group's protection against Omicron and still have the potential to significantly reduce the proportion of severe cases. Considering that the influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic is becoming more and more obvious, it is recommended to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) - u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , etc. In the long run, each vaccine head enterprise has a large amount of heavy varieties or is about to go on the market. With the increase of vaccination awareness under the covid-19 epidemic, we expect that the vaccination rate of large varieties is expected to continue to increase and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The class II vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound growth of 20% - 30% in recent 3-5 years. It is recommended that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) 。
Performance of key recommended stocks: key recommendations in January: Yaoming biology, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Haisco Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002653) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) ; The average decline this week was 10.68%, losing 6.74% to the pharmaceutical industry.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is - 3.9%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is - 2.4%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is 1.6% lower than that of CSI 300. This week, the CSI 300 fell by 2.39%, the pharmaceutical and biological industry fell by 3.94%, ranking 11th among 28 primary sub industries, and the pharmaceutical business in the sub sector rose by 1.29%; Sub sectors such as chemical pharmaceutical, biological products, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine and medical services all fell, of which medical services led the decline, with - 10.34%; The sub sectors of chemical pharmacy and traditional Chinese medicine decreased slightly, with - 1.29% and - 1.45% respectively.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
