Core view
On January 7, the people's Daily published an article by the Policy Research Office of the national development and Reform Commission, pointing out that we should put steady growth in a more prominent position and maintain a stable and healthy economic environment. We will coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and organically combine cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies. He Lifeng, director of the national development and Reform Commission, wrote that we should implement the outline of the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand and the implementation plan of the 14th five year plan, accelerate the issuance and use of special bonds of local governments, and moderately advance infrastructure investment.
From the perspective of current macroeconomic policies, moderately advanced investment in infrastructure construction or stable growth policy is one of the main means to effectively hedge the risk of real estate decline. From the market reaction last week, the urban pipe network sector began to respond to this part of the expectation, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) and so on.
From the perspective of the profitability of steel enterprises, the resumption of production of steel enterprises superimposes the winter storage and replenishment of raw materials before the Spring Festival, which promotes the rebound of iron ore. The resumption of production of blast furnace in a large area squeezes the share of electric furnace, the profit per ton of steel fell from a high level, and some electric furnace steel production capacity has no profit. The profit of short process steel fell sharply. The gross profit per ton of steel was 52 yuan / ton for rebar and 512 yuan / ton for cold rolling; The profit of long process has declined slightly, but it is still high. The profit of rebar is the worst, and the gross profit per ton of steel is 785 yuan / ton, while the profit of cold rolling is the highest, and the gross profit per ton of steel is 1245 yuan / ton.
With the end of winter storage and the convening of the Winter Olympic Games, the expectation of steel production restriction becomes stricter. The demand side gradually appears with the policy effects such as real estate and basic construction stable growth. The center of gravity of steel price may gradually rise, superimposing the weakening of demand for raw materials by production restriction, and the steel profit is expected to improve.
It is suggested to pay attention to: (1) ordinary steel plate: Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) ; (2) Special steel plate: Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tip: macroeconomic repair is not as expected; Global inflation is higher than expected; The increase of ore production did not meet the expectation; The development and vaccination progress of covid-19 vaccine was lower than expected.
