The State Council held a special meeting to coordinate logistics, operation and transfer, and promote the resumption of work and production. The pressure on the supply chain has gradually eased, but the impact still needs to be paid attention to.
I. at the industry level, the industries with the most serious impact on the supply chain: automobile, machinery and electrical equipment. Screening perspective: complexity of supply chain and advantageous industries in the Yangtze River Delta. ① Industries with complex supply chain: construction real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, machinery and household appliances. The more complex the supply chain is, the weaker the ability to resist the systemic risks of the supply chain is. ② Advantageous industries in the Yangtze River Delta: automobile, machinery and electrical equipment, accounting for a high proportion in the country. The sealing control of the Yangtze River Delta has an impact on the operation of the national supply chain.
II. At the company level, select companies whose sales, production and investment are blocked. ① Sales: the income is highly dependent on the Yangtze River Delta, with a total of 20 stocks, focusing on consumer industries such as medicine and biology, commerce and retail, food and beverage, media and so on. ② Production: relying on the supply chain, high turnover and labor-intensive, with a total of 21 stocks, involving automobile, electronics, nonferrous metals, steel and other industries. ③ Investment: there are projects under construction in the Yangtze River Delta, with a total of 20 shares, concentrated in medicine, chemical industry, machinery, power equipment and other industries.
Text summary
The policy direction of operation guarantee is clear, and the pressure on the supply chain is gradually relieved. ① Recently, the State Council held a special meeting on ensuring smooth logistics and the stability of industrial chain supply chain, which aims to coordinate the implementation of epidemic control policies of various ministries and commissions and local governments at the State Council level, so as to effectively solve the impact of national logistics and supply chain caused by sealing and control in the early stage. ② The Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of communications, the central bank and other ministries and commissions responded positively and made it clear to ensure the operation and transfer and promote the resumption of work and production. On April 15, the Ministry of industry and information technology stressed “promoting the stable production and resumption of production of key industrial enterprises, and ensuring the smooth operation of the industrial chain supply chain”, and designated 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and biomedicine. The Ministry of communications pointed out that “we will spare no effort to ensure the orderly operation of logistics”. The central bank said it would use refinancing, rediscount and other tools to increase financial support for smooth logistics and stable industrial chain supply chain. ③ We expect that with the promotion of the operation guarantee policy and the stable improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, the pressure on the supply chain will be gradually relieved, but the specific rhythm still needs to be paid attention to, especially the industries and individual stocks currently impacted.
The most serious impact on the supply chain: automobile, machinery and electrical equipment. ① Industries with complex supply chain: construction real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, machinery and household appliances. The more complex the industrial chain, the weaker the ability to resist the systemic risk of the supply chain. We choose “the proportion of purchase amount of the top five suppliers” to reflect the complexity of the supply chain. The lower the proportion, the more suppliers, and the more complex the supply chain. The 20 industries with the lowest average share are mainly concentrated in construction and real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, automobile, machinery and household appliances. ② Advantageous industries in the Yangtze River Delta: automobile, machinery and electrical equipment. The advantageous industries in the Yangtze River Delta account for a high proportion in the country, and the sealing control has an impact on the operation of the national supply chain. The Yangtze River Delta is an advanced manufacturing base in China. In 2019, the revenue of industrial enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai accounted for more than 70% of the total revenue of metal and non-metallic products (16%), chemical industry (12%), automobile (12%), computer and communication equipment (11%), machinery (11%) and electrical equipment (10%). In horizontal comparison, in addition to mining, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai account for more than 10% of the country in other fields, of which machinery, electrical equipment and automobile account for more than 30%. When the Yangtze River Delta is sealed, the national supply chain of these industries is bound to be more seriously impacted. ③ Guangdong’s advantageous industries: electronic equipment, electrical equipment, light industry; Beijing Hebei advantageous industry: public utilities.
Company perspective: sales, production and investment are blocked. ① Sales side: the income is highly dependent on the Yangtze River Delta. Screening criteria: the largest business in 2020 comes from the Yangtze River Delta, and the revenue accounts for more than 50%; In 2020, sales personnel accounted for more than 50%. A total of 20 stocks were obtained, focusing on pharmaceutical and biological, commercial retail, food and beverage, media and other consumer industries, and there is a risk of decline in short-term performance. ② Production side: relying on supply chain and labor-intensive. Screening criteria: located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai with subsidiaries in Shanghai; There is a great demand for raw materials in the production process. In 2020, raw materials accounted for more than 5% of the total assets (the first 20% of all samples); The normal inventory turnover is fast, and the inventory turnover days in 2020 are less than 60 days; Labor intensive industries need on-site operation, and production personnel account for more than 50% in 2020. A total of 21 stocks were obtained, involving automobile, electronics, nonferrous metals, iron and steel and other industries, facing the risk of shutdown in the short term. ③ Investment side: the promotion of major project construction is blocked. Select the companies with projects in the Yangtze River Delta and still under construction in the initial / additional fund-raising investment since 2021, and obtain a total of 20 shares, mainly in the industries of medicine, chemical industry, machinery, power equipment and so on.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
