Securities: in the first week of 2022, the average daily turnover of the market increased by 220 billion to 1.23 trillion month on month, and the liquidity was significantly improved; The balance of two securities lending (January 6) decreased slightly to 1.83 trillion, which has remained stable since October, of which the balance of securities lending has decreased for four consecutive trading days. This week, the regulatory norms of the two sessions and the three major exchanges appeared frequently, and more than 20 articles involved various subjects such as exchanges, securities companies and listed companies. Among them, the most concerned by the market include the introduction of market making trading on the science and innovation board and the clear transfer system of the Beijing stock exchange. Including: 1 In the draft of the market making regulations of the science and innovation board, the CSRC defined 10 market making business access conditions, including 3 “hard conditions” (license plate, net capital and classified rating) and 7 “soft conditions” (internal control, personnel, risk events, etc.). According to statistics, 25 securities companies met 3 hard conditions, but the number of securities companies actually participating in the pilot was lower than this, And will adjust dynamically. The market making securities source of Kechuang board includes its own stocks, stocks purchased in the secondary market and stocks borrowed from securities. In 2021, the average daily turnover of the science and Innovation Board was 43 billion yuan, accounting for 4% of the whole market, and the turnover rate was 4.32%, slightly higher than the overall level of the whole market. We believe that the introduction of market making mechanism is expected to further enhance market activity and provide additional profit opportunities for securities companies, but the impact on short-term performance is relatively limited; 2. In the guidance on the board transfer system of the Beijing stock exchange, the CSRC has defined the scope, conditions, procedures, recommendation methods and sales restriction arrangements of the board transfer. The board transfer must be listed on the Beijing stock exchange for one year, and can be calculated together with the time of listing on the selected layer of the new third board. According to static statistics, more than 40 companies have the conditions for board transfer. It is expected that with the gradual clarity of the board transfer path, new breakthroughs will be made in the construction of multi-level capital market. In addition, rules such as share repurchase, spin off of listed companies, shareholding of directors, supervisors and senior executives, suspension and resumption of trading, cash dividends and so on are institutional guarantees for combing and optimizing the operation mode of the capital market. With a number of laws and regulations to protect investors launched in the early stage, the implementation of the comprehensive registration system is expected to be fully guaranteed. To sum up, it is expected that in 2022, under the expectation of the comprehensive registration system, many favorable policies can be expected. Superimposed on the continuous improvement of the attraction of China’s capital market and expanding the market cake, it is expected that the prosperity of the securities industry will remain high, and the business cycle is expected to be significantly prolonged and reflect a certain growth. Among them, the head securities companies will take the lead in benefiting from their investment banking and overseas layout advantages, the incremental space of the whole business chain can be expected, and the business structure will be further aligned with overseas investment banks.
Insurance: this week, the insurance sector benefited from the rising demand for hedging in the market and the slightly loose real estate policy, released investment risks and repaired the valuation. However, considering the implementation of the new regulations of phase II of the second generation of compensation and the repeated epidemic, the changes in residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure continue to reduce the demand for margin long-term guaranteed products, we believe that the time of the industry inflection point remains to be observed. The lengthening of the investment cycle of the insurance subject matter is a high probability event. In 2022, we propose to continue to focus on the impact of strong regulatory policies on the business development of insurance enterprises. It is expected that the adjustment pressure at both ends of the asset burden of insurance enterprises will still exist, and the recovery of automobile insurance will precede that of life insurance.
Sector performance: during the four trading days from January 4 to January 7, the non bank sector rose by 1.28% as a whole. According to the Shenwan industry classification standard, the non bank ranked 17 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector fell 3.44%, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 2.39%); The insurance sector rose 4.44%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gains of securities companies were Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (4.87%), Harbin Hatou Investment Co.Ltd(600864) (2.29%), Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) (1.79%), Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) (0.93%) and The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) (0.91%); The rise and fall of insurance companies were Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (5.02%), Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (4.39%), Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000627) (3.02%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (2.95%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (2.57%), The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (1.91%) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (1.50%).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
