Event overview:
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in March 2022, China sold 33200250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.1% and a month on month increase of + 41.9%. From January to March, 81600 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%. Analysis and judgment:
Medium and large platoon continued high growth in March, and the sales peak season is approaching
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in March 2022, China sold 33200250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.1% and a month on month increase of + 41.9%, close to the highest level in a single month in history, in line with previous expectations. Since March, with the warmer weather, the medium and large platoon industry will gradually usher in the peak sales season, and the monthly sales are expected to further improve.
Breakdown of displacement: 1) the 250cc (excluding) - 400cc displacement section sold 20300 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.2% and a month on month increase of + 38.0%. From January to March, 51600 vehicles were sold in total, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.0%; 2) The 400cc (excluding) - 750cc displacement section sold 12800 vehicles in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.5% and a month on month increase of + 48.6%. From January to March, a total of 29700 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 93.0%.
Structurally, 250cc (excluding) - 400cc is still the main sales force, but the displacement section of 400cc (excluding) - 750cc is growing rapidly, which has become the main driving force to drive 250cc + sales, partly reflecting the demand of motorcycle players to upgrade their displacement. With the further formation of China's motorcycle culture, the release of the upgrading and replacement demand of emerging consumer groups and the marginal improvement of the policy of banning and restricting motorcycles, we expect the growth rate of the industry to be about 40% in 2022, reaching the sales volume of 400000 + motorcycles in the whole year, and continue to recommend medium and large displacement motorcycle tracks.
Spring breeze: 450sr is likely to be popular, and two rounds of exports continue to increase
Two wheeled motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in March, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 5500, with a year-on-year increase of + 167.6% and a month on month increase of + 11.8%. From January to March, the cumulative sales volume was 13700, with a year-on-year increase of + 152.5%. Supported by the rapid growth of two rounds of exports, the company's 250cc + market share increased to 16.8% from January to March, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.3pct. Since 250cc is the main sales force of the company, if it is expanded to 250cc (inclusive) and above, the sales volume in March is 11300, with a year-on-year increase of + 88.2% and a month on month increase of + 60.0%. The cumulative sales from January to March are 23400, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.5%.
Two rounds of recommendations for spring breeze in 2022 focus on two aspects: 1) domestic sales: the pre-sale of the imitation race new car 450sr was launched in early April, with a maximum power of 37.0kw and a maximum speed of 190km / h. compared with the standard of Kawasaki Ninja 400, the market feedback was positive and the price was probably popular; 2) Export: since 2021, the company's two rounds of exports have increased rapidly. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the company's exports of 250cc (including) and above increased by + 227% and + 224% year-on-year respectively in the whole year of 2021 and from January to march of 2022, gradually forming two rounds of new growth poles overseas.
Four wheeled ATVs: according to the data of China Automobile Association, 15500 vehicles were exported in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.4% and a month-on-month increase of + 104.5%. The monthly export returned to normal due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, and 37900 vehicles were exported from January to March, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%. Considering that the Thai plant of the company will be put into operation in 2021, but the sales volume of China Automobile Association is not included, it is expected that the actual export of the company's four rounds in March will be about 17000, reflecting the strong overseas demand. Considering the low terminal inventory, the expected interest rate increase in North America and the company's North American channel development, we expect that the company's four-round overall export is expected to achieve 220000 vehicles in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 40 +%. The profit side in the early stage is affected by tariffs and shipping to a certain extent, and it is expected to gradually improve from 2022q2.
Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) : continue to expand the product pedigree and start a new round of product cycle
According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in March was 9800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.1% and a month on month increase of + 331.3%. From January to March, 18800 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 41.1%. Since the second half of 2021, the company has continued to expand its product pedigree and ushered in a new round of product cycle: 1) the performance of four cylinder imitation race 600 has continued to be excellent; 2) Race 350, race 250 and flash 300s support entry-level displacement.
Key changes in recent years: 1) according to WeChat official account, Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) Shanghai officially opened in late November 2021, and set up three major centers for new energy research and development, industrial design and international trade, to enhance the vehicle's appearance and foresight technology research and development capabilities. 2) On December 8, 2021, the company and Harley joint venture officially completed the registration and accelerated the mass production and landing of target motorcycles (338cc displacement, 500cc displacement and motorcycles agreed in writing by both parties).
Others: Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) following Honda, the share is relatively stable
Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) : according to the data of China Automobile Association, 4100 vehicles above 250cc were sold in March, with a year-on-year increase of - 18.9% and a month on month increase of - 15.1%, of which 2600 vehicles were exported; From January to March, 12100 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.0% and a market share of 14.9%. Together with Chunfeng and Qianjiang, we built the first echelon of independent motorcycle enterprises. On March 18, 2022, the luxury flagship pedal Sr4 max of Wuji brand was officially launched (350CC large pedal), and the upgraded 350ac of 300ac was launched. At this stage, there is a high explosion potential.
Overseas exports continued to increase rapidly. Since 2021, with the company's overseas channel development, the export of 250cc + straddle models has ushered in explosive growth. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the export sales of 250cc + straddle models were 23700 and 6800 respectively in the whole year of 2021 and from January to March of 2022, up to + 435% and + 85% year-on-year respectively.
Five books & new books: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of five books above 250cc in March was 25000, with a chain comparison of + 133.4%, and the cumulative sales from January to march was 5100; In March, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 1700, with a month on month increase of + 1.9%. From January to March, the cumulative sales volume was 4700. Since the stable shipment in May 2021, Honda's share has basically maintained a range of 10-20%. For Honda's domestic impact, we still continue our previous judgment, that is, the short-term impact on the independent brand is relatively limited, mainly due to the differences in the price and positioning of the two, but in the medium and long term, whether the independent brand can improve the brand and quality control will become the key to competition.
Investment advice
The current development stage of medium and large displacement motorcycles is similar to the SUV sector from 2013 to 2014. The launch of new models and new brands by the supply end vehicle enterprises accelerates, provides the core driving force for the development of the industry, and the market expands rapidly. Referring to the development history of China's automobile industry and the competitive pattern of overseas motorcycle market, independent brands are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of the rising demand for medium and large displacement motorcycles. It is recommended that [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.Ltd(001696) Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.Ltd(001696) Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) .
Risk tips
The tightening of motorcycle ban and restriction policies has led to the decline of motorcycle demand in China; The introduction of a large number of new models of foreign brands has led to intensified market competition; Covid-19 outbreak has a short-term impact on demand.
