The quarterly report of the first quarter is better than expected, and the expected improvement of demand has more configuration value
The port price of thermal coal has stopped falling and rebounded after a round of adjustment. The closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is currently 1135 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, affected by the epidemic, long-distance shipping is still limited. On the 14th, a rollover accident occurred in the branch line of Daqin line, which may affect the transportation capacity of the whole line. In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, power consumption is still low, and the daily consumption of power plants has not rebounded. However, at the price level, affected by the overseas market, the EU's ban on Russian coal import came into effect, and the overseas coal price rose sharply. The benchmark price of thermal coal in Indonesia rose by more than 40% in April, thus supporting the bottom rebound of China's coal price. Later judgment: in terms of supply, the convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in the second half of the year will bring pressure on environmental protection and security inspection, and production may be subject to certain constraints. The release of 300 million tons of coal production capacity originally planned by the national development and Reform Commission may not meet the expectation, and the supply is still tight; In terms of demand, as the epidemic situation in all parts of the country is controlled and the social economy resumes operation, the demand for industrial power in the downstream will be restored. In addition, driven by the steady growth policy, the demand side of thermal power will increase significantly throughout the year; Overall, the price of thermal coal will still have a strong upward momentum. In terms of policy, the national development and Reform Commission is vigorously promoting the full coverage of the annual long-term association for power coal, and the future performance of coal enterprises is expected to remain more stable.
The price of coking coal is more market-oriented, that is, it is not controlled by policies. The supply side is affected by delivery, and the supply is tight. The demand side has increased with the increase of iron and steel operating rate in Tangshan, and the price of coking coal has experienced a round of rise. Later judgment: there is no obvious increment on the supply side and there is no supply guarantee policy. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the steady growth policy on the demand side, there will be a double-layer superposition of demand, and the price of coking coal is expected to rise further. This week, a number of coal enterprises issued pre increase announcements for the first quarter performance, and most of them exceeded expectations. We believe that the coal industry will benefit from the high price in the future without obvious new capital expenditure, and the profit will remain high. At present, the annualized valuation of the first quarter report of coal stocks is low, with obvious allocation value. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the price of power coal stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the accident on Daqin line may affect the transportation capacity
This week (April 11-april 15, 2022), the port price of thermal coal has stopped falling and rebounded after a round of adjustment. The closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is currently 1135 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, affected by the epidemic, long-distance shipping is still limited. On the 14th, a rollover accident occurred in the branch line of Daqin line, which may affect the transportation capacity of the whole line. In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, power consumption is still low, and the daily consumption of power plants has not rebounded. However, at the price level, affected by the overseas market, the EU's ban on Russian coal import came into effect, and the overseas coal price rose sharply. The benchmark price of thermal coal in Indonesia rose by more than 40% in April, thus supporting the bottom rebound of China's coal price. In the later stage, with the epidemic situation in all parts of the country under control and the socio-economic recovery, the demand for thermal power will increase significantly, and the price of thermal coal will still have a strong upward momentum.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke was stable this week, and the transportation was limited due to the epidemic in Shanxi
Coke: coke price remained stable this week. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the epidemic, coke enterprises have difficulties in shipping, coupled with the shortage of raw coal, coke enterprises passively accumulate warehouses, and there is less coke supply in the market; In terms of demand, Tangshan steel mills have resumed production in an orderly manner, inventory consumption has increased, coke inventory of some steel mills is urgent, and steel mills as a whole mainly focus on active procurement. Coking coal: coking coal prices are stable this week. In terms of supply, affected by the epidemic situation in Shanxi, the transportation volume of coking coal has been greatly reduced and the supply side has been tightened; In terms of demand, the demand of coke enterprises returning to work after the epidemic has increased. At present, there is a shortage of coke factory inventory and a strong demand for replenishment; In terms of imported coal, due to the shortage of coking coal in the domestic market, the quotation of overseas coal is strong; Overall, we believe that the current dual focus fundamentals are still strong. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in the later stage, the smooth recovery of transportation capacity, and the simultaneous efforts of infrastructure real estate to stimulate demand under the steady growth policy, the coking coal market is expected to be good throughout the year.
Risk tips: downside risk of economic growth, risk of epidemic impact, risk of accelerated substitution of renewable energy
