Industry trend: this week, the public utilities and environmental protection index fell 5.78%, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65%. Among them, the water treatment sector in the environmental protection sector rose by 0.08%; Among the utilities sector, clean energy power generation and thermal power decreased significantly, down 9.27% and 8.67% respectively. The gas sector and water sector rose, up 1.1% and 0.63% respectively.
Key points of this week:
1) public utilities perspective:
In January 2022, the agent power purchase price was released, and the electricity price rose in most regions. According to the notice on matters related to organizing power grid enterprises to purchase electricity by proxy issued by the national development and Reform Commission in October, power grid enterprises establish an agency power purchase mechanism, and power grid enterprises purchase electricity by market-oriented means for users who have not directly participated in market transactions. Recently, the power grid agency purchase price announcements in January 2022 have been released in other parts of the country except Guangxi and Yunnan. According to the agency purchase price results, the purchase price brought by the power grid in other provinces except Qingdao is higher than the coal-fired benchmark price. Among them, the power grid agency purchase price in Tianjin, Shanghai, Henan, Zhejiang and Shandong is more than 20% higher than the coal-fired benchmark price, Among them, Tianjin Shangfu reached 33.87%. Prices in most other provinces and cities also rose by more than 10%.
Some companies issued pre loss announcements in 2021, and the thermal power performance was lower than expected. Recently, some thermal power enterprises issued performance forecasts for 2021. Among them, Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) is expected to realize net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 from -1.985 billion yuan to -1.785 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.674 billion yuan to 2.874 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year; Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co.Ltd(600023) the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was - 760 million yuan to - 1.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.84 billion yuan to 7.22 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. The performance of the thermal power sector in 2021 was lower than expected, mainly due to the further increase of losses in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Even if some provinces re signed the annual long-term agreement on coal and power in the fourth quarter, the proportion of rising was generally high, However, according to the demand for guaranteed supply, the power plant purchases more guaranteed supply coal under the condition of high coal price, and the cost increase is higher than that of electricity price. In 2022, with the fall of coal price, the setting of price range and the rise of thermal power market-oriented electricity price, the thermal power sector is expected to maintain profit and loss balance, and the thermal power performance will not be dragged down.
The sea breeze will be put into operation on a large scale in 2021, and the construction of sea breeze will continue to advance in 2022. 2021 is the last year of offshore wind power subsidy, and there is a rush to install offshore wind power in the fourth quarter. According to our statistics, 20.1gw offshore wind power projects will be built in China in 2021, of which 16.3gw will be put into operation by the end of 2021 (some projects that have not been publicly disclosed and have been connected to the grid with full capacity are not included), and most of them will be connected to the grid in November and December. From the perspective of development subject, the installed capacity of Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) grid connected offshore wind power project is the highest, with 3.05gw grid connected in 2021 and 2.8gw grid connected in China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) . Meanwhile, the competitive allocation results of offshore wind power have been released successively. Recently, Jiangsu Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the publicity of the competitive allocation results of offshore wind power projects in Jiangsu Province in 2021. The three projects in this competitive allocation are 2.65gw in total, of which the consortium led by national energy group won Sheyang 1GW offshore wind project and the consortium led by Jiangsu Guoxin Corp.Ltd(002608) won Dafeng 0.85gw project, Three Gorges group won Dafeng 0.8gw project. The power sector recommends [ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ] [ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (a + H)] [ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ] [ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ] [ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ] with high performance certainty and growth.
2) viewpoint of environmental protection:
Improve the comprehensive utilization level of bulk solid waste, and help the comprehensive utilization of resources, energy conservation and carbon reduction. The national development and Reform Commission recently issued the notice on carrying out comprehensive utilization demonstration of bulk solid waste, announcing 40 demonstration bases for comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste and 60 backbone enterprises for comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste. The notice requires all localities to attach great importance to the demonstration construction of comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste, and clarify the target and task of achieving an annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste of about 4 billion tons by 2025. It is suggested to focus on the [ Beijing Geoenviron Engineering & Technology Inc(603588) ] of the dragon head target of hazardous waste recycling, plan to invest and build a 40000 ton high nickel matte production capacity, actively expand the [ Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603568) ] of the new energy industrial chain layout and enter the new energy lithium battery recycling, so as to open up the [ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ] space for performance growth.
Pay attention to the treatment of soil, groundwater and rural ecological environment. Recently, the Ministry of ecological environment and other seven departments jointly issued the plan for the protection of soil, groundwater and rural ecological environment during the 14th five year plan. The plan puts forward 20 specific tasks from four aspects. First, promote the prevention and control of soil pollution, including strengthening the source control of cultivated land pollution, preventing new soil pollution by industrial and mining enterprises, orderly promoting the risk control and repair of soil pollution on construction land, and carrying out pilot demonstration of soil pollution prevention and control. The second is to strengthen the prevention and control of groundwater pollution, including establishing a groundwater pollution prevention and control management system and strengthening the prevention of pollution sources. Third, deepen the treatment of agricultural and rural environment, including strengthening the pollution prevention and control of planting and aquaculture, regulating rural black and smelly water bodies, treating rural domestic sewage and rural domestic garbage. Fourth, improve the ability of ecological environment supervision, including improving the standard system, improving the monitoring network, strengthening ecological environment law enforcement, etc. It is recommended that leading enterprises of ozone generator [ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ] widely used in municipal water treatment and industrial sewage treatment should be recommended, and it is also recommended to focus on civil centrifugal pump [ Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.Ltd(002884) ].
Market information tracking:
1) carbon market tracking: the total trading volume of carbon emission quota (CEA) in the national carbon market this week is 4.5837 million tons, the weekly average price is 53.78 yuan / ton, the highest transaction price is 59.64 yuan / ton, the lowest transaction price is 54.23 yuan / ton, and the closing price on Friday is 57.59 yuan / ton; The total trading volume of local carbon trading markets is 242000 tons. In terms of average transaction price, the highest average transaction price in Guangdong market is 55.815 yuan / ton, and the lowest transaction price in Fujian is 1.055 yuan / ton.
2) natural gas price tracking: the national average weekly LNG ex factory transaction price was 4997.32 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 158.53 yuan / ton, or 3.28%; Among them, the weekly average ex factory price of the terminal was 5109.06 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 121.00 yuan / ton, or 2.43%; The average weekly ex factory price of the factory was 4872.63 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of 119.77 yuan / ton, or 2.52%.
3) coal market price tracking: the coal price decreased slightly this week: according to the data released by the coal resources network, the cci5500 comprehensive price index this week was 768 yuan / ton. From the point of origin, Yulin 5800 kcal index was 795 yuan this week, with a decrease of 20 yuan on a weekly basis; Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) 5500 kcal index was 650 yuan, stable on a week-on-week basis; Datong 5500 kcal index was 685 yuan, down 25 yuan on a weekly basis.
Portfolio
\u3000\u3000[ China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ]+[ China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) ]+[ Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) ]+[ Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) ]+[ Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) ]+[ Qingdao Guolin Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(300786) ]+[ Wangneng Environment Co.Ltd(002034) ]
Risk tip: the policy promotion is less than expected, the project operation progress is less than expected, the power coal price rises, the water supply of hydropower is less than expected, and the electricity price is reduced.
