Last week’s market:
The social services (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by – 0.62% in the week, ranking 9 / 31 in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry.
Shanghai Stock Index (- 1.25%), Shenzhen Component Index (- 2.60%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 0.99%) and gem index (- 4.26%).
Ranking of sub industries: SW hotel catering (+ 5.24%), SW professional services (- 2.30%), SW tourism and scenic spots (- 4.66%), SW Education (- 6.32%), SW sports II (- 6.90%).
The top five gainers in social service industry: Junting Hotel (+ 17.62%), Tongqing building (+ 15.00%), Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) (+ 10.71%), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (+ 9.63%), Huatian Hotel Group Co.Ltd(000428) (+ 8.40%);
Top five declines in social service industry: Chengdu B-Ray Media Co.Ltd(600880) (- 22.55%), ST tengbang (- 18.35%), Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) (- 16.62%), Dark Horse Technology Group Co.Ltd(300688) (- 16.52%), Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) (- 10.97%).
Core view:
According to the latest report, the whole city of Shanghai implements zoning, hierarchical and differentiated prevention and control management according to three categories: sealing area, control area and prevention area. According to relevant policies, commercial outlets are “closed and not closed” in the sealed and controlled areas, and limited commercial outlets are allowed to resume operation in the prevention area. According to relevant arrangements, Shanghai has established a “white list” of guaranteed supply in the sealed and controlled areas, and non epidemic related outlets in the necessary supermarket stores, convenience stores, pharmacies and other outlets can apply for unsealing; For the prevention area, shopping malls, supermarkets, pharmacies and other places providing basic necessities of life, the operation activities of other non essential commercial places will not be resumed temporarily. Large chain catering enterprises will gradually resume business, suspend hall food, and implement online ordering and offline distribution.
At present, the national epidemic prevention and control is still facing a severe and complex situation and is in the most difficult and critical stage. With the accelerated research and development of specific drugs and the steady progress of covid-19 vaccine vaccination, under the guidance of the general strategy of “external prevention input and internal prevention rebound” and the general policy of “dynamic clearing”, the epidemic situation is expected to be further controlled and activate the market vitality of the offline travel industry.
Investment advice: under the epidemic, offline consumption has suffered a heavy blow, the industry has undergone a structural reshuffle, and a number of favorable policies have fundamentally helped enterprises solve their difficulties. On the supply side, small and medium-sized enterprises have accelerated clearing, on the demand side, the digestion of household inventory under epidemic prevention and control has accelerated, and the supply demand is strong. With the stability of epidemic prevention and control, the long suppressed offline consumption and travel demand is expected to be triggered. We are optimistic about the rebound opportunity of the social service industry in the second quarter, which is good for the leading enterprises of the subdivided track:
Risk warning: global epidemic control; Regulation of national policies; Industry regulatory risks; The downward pressure on the economy has increased.
