\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 832 Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were RMB 27.20/625580 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.09% / 25.2% / 25.26%, and the performance slightly exceeded expectations. The company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was RMB 751165/152 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% / 10% / 12%, and the growth slowed down month on month. 22q1 company's revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company were RMB 810 million / 213 million / 202 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30% / 41% / 39%. Against the background of the impact of the epidemic, our analysis is mainly due to: (1) the contribution of new stores in 21q4; (2) The third and fourth tier franchise business of the company accounts for a higher proportion. The company distributed a cash dividend of 0.3 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 27% and a dividend rate of 1.3%.
Analysis and judgment:
New stores opened more than expected, and the net increase was significantly accelerated compared with 20 years. From the perspective of revenue splitting, (1) at the end of 2021, the company had 1100 stores, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a net increase of 121; From the perspective of opening and closing stores, 194 new stores were opened in 21 years, but many stores were closed (73 closed), but still accelerated compared with 20 years (a net increase of 85 in 20 years). (2) Online growth is the fastest, and the growth of franchising mainly comes from the opening of stores. The opening of Direct stores and the efficiency of stores have been improved. The online / direct / franchise revenue was 123 / 1914 / 683 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 25% / 18% / 19%. From the perspective of store efficiency and number of stores, the number of Direct stores increased by 9% to 532 in 21 years. It is estimated that the efficiency of Direct stores is 3.6 million yuan, an increase of 7% year-on-year, the number of franchise stores increased by 15% to 568 year-on-year, and the shipment of single franchise stores is 1.2 million yuan, an increase of 3% year-on-year. (3) From the perspective of volume and price, the increase mainly comes from the price contribution. In 2021, the average unit price of the company was 739 yuan, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and the sales volume increased by only 2%.
The online gross profit margin improved significantly, and the gross profit margin of direct sales and franchising continued to increase. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 76.69%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.81 PCT, of which the online / direct / franchise gross profit margin was 51% / 81% / 69% and a year-on-year increase of 13 / 3 / 1 PCT respectively. We analyze that the continuous increase of direct gross profit margin is mainly due to the contribution of price increase. The gross profit margin of 21q4 was 80.23%, a year-on-year increase of 0.54pct, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 was 75.49%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.07pct. According to our analysis, 21q1 was mainly affected by shortage, with less discounts, resulting in a higher base.
The increase in net profit margin in 2021 is due to the contribution of gross profit margin. The increase in net profit margin in 22q1 is mainly due to the improvement of sales expenses and the increase of financial income, government subsidies and interest income of time deposits. In 2021, the company's net profit margin was 22.96%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3pct, mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin. In terms of expense rate, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate was 38.3% / 5.8% / 3.1% / 0.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 0.2/0/0.3/0.4pct. The increase of financial expense rate was mainly due to the implementation of new lease standards and the interest expense of new lease liabilities. The increase of net investment income by 0.4pct to 1.4% was mainly due to the increase of financial income, and the increase of asset impairment loss by 0.8pct to 2.9% was mainly due to the loss of inventory falling price. The income tax rate in 21 years was 14.7%, which was flat year-on-year, and the income tax / income was 4%, an increase of 0.2pct. The net interest rate of 21q4 company was 22%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.44pct, mainly due to the decrease of sales expense rate. The net interest rate of 22q1 company was 26.24%, with a year-on-year increase of 2pct, mainly due to the decrease of sales expense rate and financial expense rate, as well as the increase of financial income and government subsidies.
The inventory is still rising, but the turnover days and structure are improved. In 2021, the company's inventory was 660 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, an increase of 8% compared with the end of 21q3, and the inventory at the end of 22q1 was basically the same as that at the end of 21. The number of inventory turnover days in 21 years was 360 days, with a year-on-year decrease of 36 days. From the perspective of inventory structure, the proportion of less than 1 year / 1-2 years / 2-3 years / more than 3 years was 59% / 24% / 13% / 4% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 9 / - 5 / - 7 / 3PCT. In 2021, the turnover days of accounts receivable were 38 days, with a year-on-year increase of 4 days, and the turnover days of accounts payable were 66 days, with a year-on-year increase of 8 days.
Investment advice
Looking forward to the next 22 years, (1) the company is expected to accelerate the opening of stores. We estimate that 180 stores will open, and the opening growth rate + area contribution of the same store is expected to contribute to the high growth rate of revenue. (2) The provision for impairment is sufficient in 2021 and is expected to contribute to performance flexibility in 22 years. Considering that the performance exceeded the expectation, the revenue of 22 / 23 years was increased from 2.752/3.126 billion yuan to 3.32/3.87 billion yuan, the new 24-year revenue was 4.35 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 was increased from 780 / 1 billion yuan to 812 / 1.024 billion yuan, the new 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.24 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS was adjusted from 1.42/1.82 yuan to 1.42/1.79 yuan, and the new 24-year EPS was 2.17 yuan, On April 15, 2022, the closing price was 22.3 yuan, corresponding to PE of 16 / 12 / 10x respectively. We are optimistic about the growth trend of the company's continuous share grabbing and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Uncertainty of the impact of the epidemic; The risk of opening a store is lower than expected; Systemic risk.
