\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 539 Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) )
The business boom of phosphorus, compound fertilizer and United alkali is upward, the company’s performance continues to grow, and the “buy” rating is maintained
According to the company’s announcement, in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 14.898 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 62.74%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 147.06%. In Q1 2022, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 450480 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 149.15% – 165.76%. Since 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s compound fertilizer, combined alkali, phosphorus chemical and other products has increased year-on-year, and the company’s performance has continued to grow. We increased the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.836 (+ 5.79), 2.273 (+ 910) and 2.442 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 182 (+ 0.58), 2.25 (+ 0.90) and 2.42 yuan / share respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 8.3, 6.7 and 6.3 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The prices of phosphorus chemical, combined alkali and compound fertilizer products rose, and the company’s performance in a single quarter continued to grow
According to Baichuan Yingfu, wind and Zhuo Chuang information, the average market price of Q4 yellow phosphorus in 2021 was 38871 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 23.10%; The average prices of light alkali and ammonium chloride were 3246 and 1136 yuan / ton respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 42.81% and + 5.62% respectively. The company has an annual production capacity of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of yellow phosphorus and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of combined alkali, which fully benefits from the rise in the prices of yellow phosphorus and combined alkali products. Affected by the “two carbon” policy, the rise of coal and the rise of the price of simple fertilizer, the average price and month on month variation range of monoammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer in Q4 in 2021 were 3196 (- 2.02%) and 3228 (+ 1.95%) yuan / ton respectively. The sales volume of compound fertilizer in 2021 was + 10.41% year-on-year, and the overall volume and price of compound fertilizer business increased simultaneously. Phosphorus chemical industry, compound fertilizer and combined alkali businesses have blossomed at many points, and the company has increased significantly in 2021. In Q1 2022, the prices of soda ash, ammonium chloride and phosphate compound fertilizer continued to rise, and the company’s single quarter performance continued to grow.
The iron phosphate and supporting capacity of the company are accelerated, and it is expected to continue to contribute to the performance from 2023
The company plans to raise more funds to build the “linkage production project of new energy materials and slow and controlled-release compound fertilizer produced by comprehensive utilization of phosphate rock resources”. The total investment of the project is expected to be 4.595 billion yuan, and it is planned to invest 2 billion yuan to build an annual output of 350000 tons of battery grade iron phosphate and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of slow and controlled-release compound fertilizer in Songzi City, Hubei Province, as well as front-end supporting capacity and facilities. The project is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023. The company continues to deepen the advantages of the whole industrial chain of chemical fertilizer, seize the favorable period of the development of iron phosphate and extend the industrial chain. The company’s agrochemical and new energy businesses blossom at many points, and we are firmly optimistic about the company’s future growth.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc.
