Key investment points:
Horizontal and vertical comparison shows that the large financial valuation is at the bottom of history
At present, the large A-share financial industry is not only lower than the valuation of the corresponding industries of U.S. stocks, but also almost at the most undervalued level in its history. In the context of overall loose liquidity, we believe that the large financial industry has the power of valuation repair. Horizontal comparison: the Pb multiple of securities companies and banking industry is far lower than that of S & P 500. From the perspective of relative valuation, compared with US stocks, the financial industry with large A-Shares has been significantly underestimated. Vertical comparison: at present, Pb in the securities industry is at the undervalued quantile level of 16.28%, while banking and insurance are almost at the lowest valuation quantile in history. Economic pressure superimposed with loose liquidity, valuation repair may be the main tone of A-Shares in 2022, while the financial industry with large undervalued value may welcome the opportunity of valuation repair.
Securities companies: short-term stagflation is obvious, and long-term growth logic appears
The fundamentals of the securities industry deviate from the valuation level, and the profitability continues to improve, but the current valuation is at the bottom of history. At present, the roe level of the securities industry has increased steadily, superimposing the switching between industry cycle and growth logic, the overall profitability and anti cyclicality of the industry have been significantly improved, and there is a large space for later valuation repair. With the advent of the era of superimposed wealth management and large asset management, the transformation of traditional brokerage business to wealth management, the de channel of asset management business, the reform of wealth management and the promotion of IPO normalization have opened long-term growth space for head securities companies and characteristic securities companies.
Individual stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) .
Bank: steady growth superimposed high cut low, cycle reversal in sight
Policy and monetary policy are expected to work together. The upward fiscal and monetary policy will create conditions for wide credit. The revenue end of the banking industry will make up for the “price drop” of the net interest margin with the “increase in the volume” of deposits and loans. At the same time, the improvement of the net interest margin plus the stable growth of assets will boost the industry upward. Under the background of steady growth and wide credit, the banking industry is expected to usher in a round of valuation repair market, whether from the recent market style rotation performance or the expectation of improvement in its fundamentals.
Individual stocks are recommended to pay attention to: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Bank Of Suzhou Co.Ltd(002966) .
Risk tips
The risk of economy falling short of expectations, policy risk and deterioration of asset quality.
