\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 078 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) )
Main points:
The company released its annual report for 2021, and its revenue increased by 48.2%.
The company achieved a revenue of 31.997 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 48.21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 51.39%; Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 8.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39.19%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 189 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of - 66.98%. The decline in net profit was mainly due to the rise of Q4 energy cost.
Multiple kinds of paper and businesses go hand in hand, and the integration of Forest Pulp and paper develops in depth.
The company focuses on its main business, focuses on high-quality and differentiated products, and has a clear diversified layout strategy. In terms of products, the company's revenue of cultural paper / kraft liner paper / dissolved pulp / coated base paper in 21 years reached 127.7/98.7 and 3.26/1.07 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.2% / 136.6% / 49.2% and 95% respectively. Among them, the company's Kraft linerboard and coated base paper are positioned as high-end, with strong market demand and bright revenue growth under the background of foreign waste ban and replacing plastic with paper. In terms of capacity scale, the company's 21h2 Guangxi phase I project has been put into operation successively, with a total capacity of pulp and paper exceeding 10 million tons, and the strategic pattern of "three bases" has basically taken shape. In addition, the company signed an investment agreement in February and plans to invest in the 5.25 million ton Forest Pulp paper integration project in Nanning to further optimize the product structure and create a complete raw material supply system. Under the tightening of energy consumption indicators, the scarcity of the company's capacity under construction is highlighted, laying a solid foundation for the company's future development.
The demand for cultural paper has warmed up, the advantages of self owned pulp have been highlighted, and the profit has entered the upward channel.
The company's 21q4 profit was under pressure due to factors such as rising energy costs and weak demand, and the gross profit margin fell 4.52pct month on month. 22q1 cultural paper landscape rebounded, the demand for traditional publishing orders was released, the import volume of cultural paper decreased, the supply pressure was improved, and the high cost end pulp price fluctuated, forming a strong cost support for the paper price. The company actively promoted the implementation of the policy of raising the price of cultural paper, and the production capacity of 550000 tons in Guangxi was switched to cultural paper again, giving full play to the advantages of its own pulp to stabilize the cost; In addition, the current energy price has fallen, the company's main production base is less affected by the epidemic, and the 22q1 profit is expected to improve significantly. In the medium and long term, the company deepens the integrated layout of Forest Pulp and paper, continues to implement the differentiated competition strategy, and has multiple advantages such as product power, scale and cost, which is expected to further improve the market share. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be RMB 3.086/3.277/3.696 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% / 6.2% / 12.8% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the production capacity is less than expected, the market competition intensifies, and the risk of repeated outbreaks
