1. The sector continued to callback, and the related targets of probiotics and prefabricated dishes ushered in a short-term market. Food and beverage fell 3.78% this week, 2.13 percentage points lower than the Shanghai Composite Index (- 1.65%). Subdivision plates showed that health products and meat products increased by 3.96% and 2.81%, but other sections were not performing well, including beer, Baijiu, pre processed foods and snack plates fell by 6.16%, 4.68%, 4.63% and 4.19%, respectively. In the past two weeks, the plate continued to callback, mainly because the plate faced callback pressure after the early valuation was repaired in place; The systematic correction of the market also has an impact on the trend of the plate. In terms of individual stocks, probiotics, prefabricated dishes and other related targets ushered in short-term market this week, among which Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) (26.84%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (24.67%), Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (23.30%), Juneyao Grand Healthy Drinks Co.Ltd(605388) (20.95%), Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) (16.56%) and other gains were higher.
2, Baijiu is subject to information disturbance and callback, but the industry fundamentals remain strong, and the plate enters the layout area. Baijiu plate in the past two weeks, the larger the callback range, the reasons are: 1) the plate has been rising and increasing since mid November 2021, and the value of the repair is in place, facing the pressure of callback. 2) Market sentiment fluctuated due to the expected price increase in Maotai. At present, the price increase has not been fulfilled, and the market expectation has cooled down. 3) The overall correction of the market also has an impact on the trend of the plate. However, the recent stock price fluctuation is mainly affected by news disturbance and capital, which is not the fundamental reason: on the one hand, the certainty of Maotai price increase is still high (the prices of Maotai Vintage liquor, series liquor, export products and some non-standard products have been increased in recent days). Even without considering the price increase factors, the company's performance will accelerate and the fundamentals will be stable in 2022 by relying on structural adjustment and management dividend release; On the other hand, we have recently conducted some research on some large Baijiu consumption provinces, such as Sichuan and Henan. Overall, the leading quarter has a good rhythm in the first quarter. With the coming of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to move well. We believe that after the correction, the sector has entered the layout range. It is expected to continue the structural market in 2022 and continue to be optimistic about the secondary high-end opportunities. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional secondary high-end leaders.
3. The style of the mass market has changed, the attention of small tickets has increased, and the prefabricated dishes and probiotics have attracted attention. Recently, there are two main lines of market preference: Prefabricated dishes and probiotics. (1) With the Spring Festival approaching and the epidemic situation still severe, it is expected that many residents choose to celebrate the new year on site, and the orders for prefabricated vegetables Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) have increased significantly. At present, the prefabricated vegetable industry has a large development space in the future, the competition pattern is scattered, and the industry has just started. At present, four types of enterprises have begun to layout prefabricated vegetables. The first category is traditional prefabricated dishes and central kitchen enterprises, such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ; The second category is quick-frozen food manufacturing enterprises, such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ; The third category is catering enterprises, such as Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) ; The fourth category is the upstream Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) primary processing enterprises. For the fourth category of companies, prefabricated dishes are opportunities for enterprise transformation. The net profit margin of prefabricated dishes is higher than that of the original main business. Previously, the market attention was also low, such as Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Springsnow Food Group Co.Ltd(605567) , Shandong Longda Meat Foodstuff Co.Ltd(002726) . (2) In terms of probiotics, some probiotics can inhibit the growth of Helicobacter pylori. The spread and harm of Helicobacter pylori have attracted the attention of residents. The probiotics that can inhibit its growth are expected to have a broad market in the future. The Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) , Juneyao Grand Healthy Drinks Co.Ltd(605388) that have accumulated certain probiotic R & D technology have also attracted market attention.
4. The catalytic effect of price increase on stock price is weakened, and the transmission effect of price increase still needs to be observed. This week, downstream milk tea brands Xiangpiaopiao Food Co.Ltd(603711) and tea Yan Yuese announced price increases, and midstream manufacturing terminals Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) , Panda Dairy Corporation(300898) also announced to increase the ex factory price of products. Among them, Ligao and panda have raised the price for the second time since 2021. However, the stock price trend had partially overdrawn the price increase expectation, the market feedback on the price increase information was gradually rational, and the stock price of the company with the recent price increase had no obvious catalysis. The epidemic situation is still severe, consumer demand is still weak, and the transmission situation of enterprises that have raised prices is divided. In terms of condiments, Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) price increase was conducted smoothly. Revenue maintained high growth in December 2021 and exceeded the target throughout the year. The growth rate of other companies, such as condiments and quick-frozen food, fell after replenishing inventory through channels. In the case of difficult recovery of catering, the overall demand is weak, and the industry still needs to wait for the demand inflection point.
5. Update of industry and company views:
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : in 2021, Maotai flavor liquor company will achieve revenue of 11.8 billion and target 24 billion in the 14th five year plan. On January 5, the national Dealer Association of Maotai flavor liquor series was held. In 2021, Maotai flavor liquor company completed the sales volume of 30000 tons (the same as + 3%), realized the revenue of 11.8 billion yuan (the same as + 22%), and the total profit is expected to be 5.185 billion yuan (the same as + 60%); 53 new distributors were added throughout the year, reaching 998; Maotai Prince liquor / Han sauce / Guizhou Daqu achieved sales of 5.4 billion yuan / 1.7 billion yuan / 1.4 billion yuan respectively. President Ding proposed that Maotai flavor liquor series should strive to achieve a revenue of more than 24 billion yuan at the end of the 14th five year plan, accounting for more than 10% of the group. Maotai 1935 / Han sauce / Prince liquor became the "pillar" at the price of 1000 yuan / 500-1000 yuan / 500 yuan respectively. The products below 200 yuan of series liquor will be discontinued, and the prices of some products will be increased by 10% - 15%. In the future, series liquor will become another important growth pole of Maotai. Some dealers of Chinese zodiac, boutique and vintage 15 year non-standard products turn to take goods from direct stores. Moutai retail guide price is $4599 / bottle, once again leading the high-end baijiu. Maotai has strong demand for consumption, investment and collection, and the company still has the ability and space to raise prices; Considerable volume increase, price increase of non-standard products, improvement of product structure and increase of direct sales proportion have been implemented one by one. The company has a high probability of performance acceleration in 2022, and continues to be optimistic about the company's long-term development in the future.
(2) Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) : domestic independent probiotic leader, which can grow in the future. China's Probiotic trial market started late. DuPont of the United States and Hansen of Denmark accounted for 85% of China's overall probiotic raw material market. The company was established in 2003 and has been deeply engaged in research and development in the field of probiotics. A variety of star strains broke the international monopoly. Moreover, the efficacy evaluation of strains from discovery to research and development came from China, which is more suitable for the intestines of Chinese people and gradually opened domestic substitution. Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) has the patent probiotic Bifidobacterium lactis probio-m8. According to the patent report, probio-m8 has many functions, such as enhancing body immunity, improving intestinal flora diversity, inhibiting the growth of Helicobacter pylori, etc. at present, the patent is in the trial stage. The company's edible probiotics sector grew rapidly. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of edible probiotics sector was 58 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 166.86%. We believe that with the expansion of downstream customers of edible probiotics and the continuous landing of large orders, the edible probiotics sector will continue to maintain a high growth trend in the future, and the continuous improvement of the proportion of edible probiotics with high gross profit will help the company's profit margin rise steadily.
(3) Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) : a leading enterprise in the aquatic products industry, and the transformation of aquatic prefabricated dishes is on the way. The company is the leader of aquatic products in China. Over the years, it has established a relatively perfect global aquatic product supply chain system. However, in recent years, due to the unpredictable risks of tariff, exchange rate and sea freight, the profit fluctuates greatly.
The company has gradually shifted its focus to China's business, focusing on several changes: 1) it has made great efforts to deeply process prefabricated vegetable products, such as shrimp dumplings, bread shrimp, crayfish, pickled fish, etc. in 2021, new shrimp slides, grilled fish and other new products have just been launched, of which grilled fish has received good response in commercial supermarket channels; 2) Channel segmentation adjustment: the company subdivides domestic sales channels into four categories: heavy customer catering, circulation channels, supermarkets and e-commerce. We have reached long-term cooperation with yum, Burger King, TIMS, HEMA, Sam, Yonghui, etc. In the future, the company will also focus more on the goal of product structure and marketing structure adjustment, and is expected to take advantage of the development of prefabricated dishes to achieve transformation and improve profitability.
6. Recommend stocks: Overall, the Baijiu industry will remain stable and the secondary high-end logic will continue to be fulfilled. The dark hour of popular products has passed, and the price increase has brought about marginal improvement in the performance of the sector, so we can choose the best layout. Based on this, we maintain the rating of the food and beverage industry as "recommended".
Baijiu: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) .
Popular products: Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) etc.
Short term suggestions: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) etc.
7. Risk tips: 1) the recovery of catering channels affected by the epidemic is lower than expected; 2) Macroeconomic fluctuations hinder the pace of consumption upgrading; 3) Industry policy changes lead to increased competition; 4) The price of raw materials has risen sharply; 5) Food safety incidents, etc.
