\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 214 Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) )
Event: on April 14, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.652 billion yuan / year-on-year + 17.55%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 73.48 million yuan / year-on-year – 36.97%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 28.97 million yuan / year-on-year – 64.97%; Among them, in 2021q4, the revenue was 999 million yuan / year-on-year + 54.49%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 39.83 million yuan / year-on-year – 24.08%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was 24.635 million yuan / year-on-year – 43.27%. During the reporting period, the company completed the consolidation of Beibei bear on October 31. If the impact of Beibei bear consolidation is excluded, the operating revenue of the company in 2021 / 2021q4 is + 10.44% / 29.70% year-on-year respectively, and the impact on the profit side is limited.
The original brand is stable, the exhibition store has completed the acquisition of beibeibei bear, and the positive integration has greatly increased the number of stores. 1) During the reporting period, the company completed the acquisition and active integration of Beibei bear, a regional mother and baby leader. It consolidated its statements at the end of October (about 220 stores at the time of consolidation). The latter has advantages mainly in Hunan, Hubei and Jiangsu regions; With dual brand operation mode and complementary advantages, the company realizes the coordination of regional businesses in East China, South China and central China in terms of market, technology and supply chain. 2) Meanwhile, in 2021, the company had 50 exhibition stores, 28 closed Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) stores and 20 beibeixiong stores. By the end of the reporting period, there were 526 stores in total, and the number of stores increased greatly. 3) In the fourth quarter alone: Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) / 16 / 6 stores opened and 8 / 20 closed, mainly due to the active optimization and adjustment of stores in the process of integration; 2021q4 company has opened 4 / 3 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 1 stores in Shanghai / Zhejiang / Jiangsu / Fujian / Chongqing / Guangdong and closed 5 / 2 / 1 stores in Shanghai / Zhejiang / Fujian. The layout of stores in Shanghai is still adjusted.
The same store declined, the online performance was bright, and the revenue in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations. 1) During the reporting period, the company’s annual sales per square meter of comparable stores were 11000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 5.35%, and the annual sales per square meter of new stores were 7100 yuan; 2) In the fourth quarter alone, due to the good revenue recorded by M & A and the previous generation operation business of the new expansion line (the revenue is expected to be about 200 million in the fourth quarter alone), the revenue achieved a high increase. 2) In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 1.408 billion yuan / 496 million yuan / 249 million yuan / 199 million yuan / 78 million yuan / 08 million yuan for milk powder / consumer goods / cotton textile / food / toys / lathe respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.79% / – 0.41% / + 15.01% / + 11.48% / – 2.31% / – 0.88%. 3) Perform well online. In 2021, the company actively promoted online layout, and sold dual track and dual drive traffic in public domain (tmall, jd.com, pinduoduo and other mainstream third-party platforms) and private domain (self operated app, wechat mall, o2o instant channel), settled in meituan / hungry / jd.com and other platforms, and carried out community operation by using enterprise wechat to continuously output high-quality content and marketing information, so as to accurately realize innovation and repurchase. The company’s annual e-commerce revenue was 338 million yuan, accounting for 12.73% / year-on-year + 7.57 PCT, with a bright online performance.
The gross profit margin decreased year-on-year, and the expense rate increased during the period. 1) In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was – 1.3pct to 30.26% year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was – 4.1pct to 29.60% year-on-year, which was mainly due to the company’s cooperation with online promotion and the good development momentum of agent operation business in the fourth quarter (the gross profit margin was relatively low). 2) In terms of categories, milk powder category / consumer category / cotton textile category / food category / toy category / lathe category – 12.2pct / + 7.2pct / + 7.9pct / + 5.7pct / + 2.0pct / + 9.6pct in the fourth quarter of the year. After the impact of the epidemic in 2020, the gross profit margin of multiple categories reached the level above 2019. 3) In terms of expense rate, the company’s sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate increased from + 0.9pct / – 0.3pct / + 1.4pct to 22.33% / 3.61% / 1.63% year-on-year respectively, of which the employee expense rate and other expense rate increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the company’s vigorous development of online business, the expansion of beibeixiong business and other factors.
The membership system has developed solidly, the self owned brand has enriched the matrix, and the pilot early education and nursery education have strengthened the stickiness. During the reporting period: 1) the company continued to develop members and provide exclusive rights and interests of brand customers, effectively improving the repurchase rate and brand loyalty of members. The average monthly consumption of paying members is about 6 times that of ordinary members. More than 1000 enterprise and micro communities with more than 50 people have been established, with more than 1.2 million community fans; 2) Private brands enrich the matrix and contribute to gross profit growth; 3) Pilot the new business of early education and nursery education, open the first nursery education center in Shanghai, and explore the transformation of diversified businesses, which may help to enhance the stickiness of customers and users.
Investment suggestion: the company is a mother baby chain leader with outstanding reputation, product portfolio adjustment ability and efficiency advantages. At present, it is in the period of store layout adjustment, which conforms to the trend of transformation and has an impact on profitability. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 will be RMB 116 / 124 million respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.82 and 0.88 per share. The current share price corresponding to PE is 23 / 21 times respectively, giving the company a target price of RMB 22 and maintaining the “overweight” rating of the company.
Risk tips: 1) the epidemic has seriously affected consumption, resulting in the exhibition stores falling short of expectations for a long time; 2) The same store in Shanghai has fallen sharply for a long time; 3) Supply chain optimization is not as expected; 4) Industry competition has intensified seriously
