\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
In the first quarter of 2022, the company made a profit of 1.498 billion yuan. The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 202q1.2%; In 2022, Q1 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.498 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 422.19%; In 2022, the gross profit margin of Q1 company was 44.04%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.71pct; The net interest rate was 29.7%, up 11 PCT year-on-year. In the first quarter, the company’s profitability increased significantly, mainly due to the rise in the amount of electrolyte. We estimate that the shipment of electrolyte in Q1 is 60000 tons, and the price excluding tax is about 72000 yuan. At the same time, the company basically realizes the self supply of hexafluoride, and the integrated layout continues to improve the company’s profit. We estimate that the net profit per ton of electrolyte business Q1 is 21000 yuan. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, the company is expected to ship 30 China Tianying Inc(000035) 0000 tons.
Accelerate the layout of iron phosphate business. The company announced the new Yichang phase II 200000 ton iron phosphate project, with Tianci holding 65%, and the total investment of the project is 1.005 billion yuan. The construction period of the project is 9 months. It is expected to be put into operation at the end of 22. At that time, the total capacity is expected to reach 382600 tons. If the equity ratio is considered, Tianci holding a total capacity of 277600 tons. After the completion of Yichang phase II project, it is expected to realize an annual income of 2.2 billion yuan, a unit price of 11000 and a net profit of about 11000 per ton. We estimate that the company’s Q1 iron phosphate shipment is 9000 tons, the unit price excluding tax is about 20000 tons, and the net profit is about 3700 yuan. Looking forward to the whole year of 2022, we expect the company’s iron phosphate business to ship 8 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000 tons and more than 300000 tons in 2023.
The production capacity of additives is released and shipped successively. Q1 lifsi business is estimated to ship 900 tons, with a net profit of 160000 yuan per ton. It is estimated that the company’s production capacity in 22 years will be 10000 tons. After deducting self use, it is expected to ship 3600 tons in the whole year.
Clear medium and long-term planning and consolidate the leading position of lithium battery materials. In terms of electrolyte, the company has successively arranged production capacity in many places. The long-term electrolyte production capacity is planned to be close to 1.2 million tons. At the same time, the long-term planned production capacity of hexafluoride exceeds 170000 tons (converted into solid) to ensure integrated supply. We expect the long-term market share of electrolyte to reach more than 40%. In terms of lifsi business, the production capacity will reach 30000 / 60000 tons in 2023 / 2024, which will increase the profitability of the company. At the same time, the company will have more research and development and production of new additives, such as DTD and lidodfp, which will further consolidate the leading position of the company in lithium battery materials.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; The production progress is less than expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected.
Investment suggestion: raise the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. The company has deeply cultivated the electrolyte industry chain, improved the layout of raw materials, integrated layout and continuously improved its profitability. At the same time, iron phosphate, daily chemical and other businesses have developed stably and contributed considerable profits to the company. Based on the performance of the company’s first quarterly report and the production expansion plan, we raised the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.315/59.31/7.858 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast was 5.133/57.26/7.858 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023 / 2024), the year-on-year growth rate will be 140.7% / 11.6% / 32.5% respectively, the diluted EPS will be 5.52/6.16/8.16 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 14.8/13.2/10.0 times respectively, Maintain “buy” rating
