In the first quarter of 2022, the market differentiation was incisively and vividly reflected in ETF products.
according to the statistical data of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) Research Report, of the 599 ETF funds listed and traded before 2022 in the whole market, only 59 achieved positive returns in the first quarter, accounting for less than 10%. Among them, Huaxia soybean meal ETF, which increased the most, increased by 30.22% in the first quarter, leading the city.
In contrast, the overall performance of the subject matter of the TMT sector was poor. More than a dozen products fell by more than – 25% in the first quarter, with a head to tail difference of more than 60%.
since April, with the gradual shock and stabilization of the market, some funds have signs of return, but the differentiation is still significant Huicheng fund research center statistics show that since this week, bottom reading funds have been flowing into the market through stock ETFs. Statistics show that the circulation share of stock ETFs increased by 11.842 billion in the first four trading days of this week. According to the average transaction price of each day, stock ETFs received an inflow of 16.347 billion yuan.
decrease in ETF price in the first quarter
Chunjiang water heating duck prophet, ETF can be said to be one of the most sensitive products in the equity market. Dragged down by the continuous decline of A-Shares in the first quarter, most ETF products in the whole market fell and the scale also decreased.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) statistics show that by the end of the first quarter, the total number of ETF funds in the whole market was 650, an increase of 36 over the end of 2021; The total management scale (estimated value) was 104731 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 79.65 billion yuan. In the first quarter, 19 fund companies issued 39 ETF funds in the whole market, and the number of new ETF funds remained high, but the total fund-raising scale was only 12.06 billion yuan, down 79.2% month on month.
In terms of scale, among different types of ETF funds, the number and scale of stock ETF still occupy an absolute advantage. By the end of the first quarter, the total scale of 551 stock ETFs was 862.7 billion yuan, accounting for more than 80% of all ETF funds; Qdii-etf (including Hong Kong stock connect ETF) took the second place, with 65 funds totaling 135.62 billion yuan, accounting for 10.0% and 13.0% respectively; The number and scale of Bond ETF and commodity ETF are relatively low, with a total scale of about 20 billion yuan.
it is worth noting that the scale of e-fund zhonggai Internet ETF, Huaxia Hengsheng Internet ETF and Huaxia Kechuang 50ETF in the first quarter increased by 2.358 billion yuan, 4.538 billion yuan and 1.932 billion yuan respectively to 35.011 billion yuan, 23.367 billion yuan and 22.621 billion yuan, indicating that the funds are looking forward to the future performance of these products
However, in terms of performance, except commodity ETF, the average return of other ETF funds in the first quarter was negative; The average declines of stock ETF and qdii-etf were – 14.9% and – 14.0% respectively, the average decline of Bond ETF was – 0.11%, and the average rise of commodity ETF was 8.44%. Among different types of equity ETF funds, smartbeta ETF and other ETFs are relatively resistant to decline, with average declines of – 7.21% and – 10.72% for different targets; Broad based Index ETF and industry themed ETF fell deeply, falling 15.63% and 16.08% respectively in the first quarter.
the differentiation continued in the second quarter, and the main line of steady growth remained distinct
In the weak market, funds still have the action of bottom reading. Statistics show that the scale of Huaxia Hang Seng Internet ETF soared by 4.538 billion yuan in the first quarter, and the latest scale exceeded 20 billion yuan; In addition, the scale of ETF funds tracking Hong Kong stock market index or China stock index, such as Huaxia Hang Seng ETF, Huaxia Hang Seng technology ETF and e-fund China stock Internet ETF, also increased by more than 2 billion yuan.
In addition, small and medium-sized market capitalization style targets such as e-fund gem ETF, huaanchuang 50ETF and Huaxia science and technology innovation board 50ETF, as well as GF infrastructure ETF related to the theme of steady growth, also achieved significant scale growth. In contrast, ETF funds with a sharp decline in scale are mostly large market capitalization style targets, and some leading targets in subdivided industries have a significant decline in scale.
In terms of capital flow, the four sub sectors of market index, commodity ETF, Bond ETF and Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen index showed overall net capital outflow in the first quarter, of which the net capital outflow of market index sector was as high as 17.015 billion yuan; In addition, other equity sectors realized net capital inflow. The net capital inflow of qdii-etf sector in the first quarter was as high as 45.928 billion yuan, far exceeding that of other sectors. The net capital inflow of small and medium-sized index, TMT and midstream manufacturing also exceeded 10 billion yuan.
since April, as the market gradually shakes and stabilizes, structural opportunities are emerging, some funds have signs of return, and the market differentiation is still significant
Huicheng Fund statistics show that ETFs in coal, tourism and other industries have increased significantly, and signs of capital inflow have also been revealed
Q2 configuration direction exploration
For the performance of the market in the second quarter and beyond, institutions generally believe that steady growth is still the theme throughout the year. The investment opportunities for growth should wait and see the performance of the market after it is truly stabilized. They are relatively optimistic about agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and financial real estate. There are also periodic opportunities in the cycle field.
Yinhua Fund Research Department believes that it is relatively optimistic about agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and financial real estate, and there are phased opportunities in the cycle field. The specific views are as follows:
agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In the short term, the callback probability of the sector is the normal adjustment after the super rise, and the overall upward trend may not be over. According to relevant data, the stock of fertile sows decreased by 1.2% month on month in March, showing an accelerated de industrialization state, and the market began to have positive feedback on the de industrialization of production capacity. Looking forward to the second quarter, Yinhua Fund Research Department believes that in terms of price, pig price is expected to remain depressed in the second quarter and may rebound at the end of the second quarter; In terms of production capacity, under the circumstances of rising raw material costs and depressed pig prices, the direction of production capacity will not change. It is expected that the trend of capacity deregulation is the core support of the stock price, and continue to be optimistic about the future performance of the pig sector.
real estate
The meeting of the financial stability Committee has a positive voice for real estate, the market’s expectation of further easing the financing end of real estate has increased, and the normalization repair of policies is expected to start. At the same time, the industry is expected to remain cleared, the industry concentration will increase again, and the valuation of leading real estate enterprises is expected to continue to repair opportunities.
From the perspective of elasticity, if the real estate relaxation policy is large, the logic may spread to some high-quality private enterprises.
bank
Steady growth superimposed on the performance disclosure of the first quarterly report, the proportion of non interest income of regional banks such as the Yangtze River Delta is lower than that of national banks as a whole, so it is less affected by the fluctuation of the capital market, which may drive the phased relative income of the sector.
coal
Fundamentals recently affected by the epidemic and the seasonal off-season is approaching, the daily consumption ring ratio and year-on-year of the demand side have dropped to a certain extent, and the market price of thermal coal has been corrected. At this stage, the supply and demand of coal is still in a relatively tight balance. The coal price is a game between fundamentals and policies. On the whole, the benchmark price rises, the proportion of long-term cooperation increases, and the profit stability of major coal enterprises is strong. The coal sector has the opportunity to carry out the transformation, which is also in line with the current policy direction of coal enterprises. Since this year, coal prices have performed better than expected, but overseas energy prices have remained high, steady growth, relaxation of real estate policies and other policy expectations may fluctuate in the short term, and the annual expectation is still good.
new energy vehicles
At present, the prosperity of electric vehicles remains high, and the current valuation is low after drastic adjustment. In terms of supply, the current round of epidemic has a great impact on the supply chain. The logistics and production of several major electric vehicle industry chain clusters have been greatly affected. A considerable proportion of car factories have announced shutdown. Other car factories are facing the problem of insufficient parts inventory, so they need to revise the sales forecast of China in April and the second quarter. In terms of demand, on the whole, the second round of price rise has little impact on the demand side. In the medium and long term, the extent of damage to residents’ balance sheets caused by repeated epidemics still needs to be observed.
