Core view
This week’s market review. In the first week of 2022, the real estate sector index is stronger than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was + 6.9%. The CSI 300 index closed at 4822.37, with a weekly increase of – 2.4%; The gem index closed at 3096.88, with a weekly increase of – 6.8%; The real estate sector index closed at 3522.02, with a weekly increase of + 4.5%.
Industry highlights this week. Shanghai headquarters of the central bank: continue to steadily implement the prudent management of real estate finance. Centralized land supply in Beijing and Nantong continued. Evergrande, country garden, CNOOC, rongchuang, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Xincheng and other real estate enterprises released the sales data in 2021. The London resort, the British version of Disney, will open in 2025.
Sales of new houses decreased this week compared with last week, and sales of second-hand houses decreased compared with last week. In the first week of 2022, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 26000 units, a decrease of 45.3% compared with the 53rd week of 2021; In 11 major cities, 6000 second-hand houses were sold, a decrease of 33.7% compared with the 53rd week of 2021; Compared with the 53rd week of 2021, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were – 28.3% and – 52.3% respectively; Compared with the 53rd week of 2021, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were – 53.3% and – 11.7% respectively. Inventory decreased compared with last week and inventory sales increased compared with last week. By the first week of 2022, the inventory of 15 major cities was 1232000 units, a decrease of 15000 units compared with the 53rd week of 2021; The stock to sales ratio was 12.9 months, an increase of 0.6 months over the 53rd week of 2021. The land market transfer heat this week decreased compared with last week. In the first week of 2022, a total of 1 land was sold in 26 major cities, 4 less than that in the 53rd week of 2021. The amount of land transfer decreased. The land transfer fee of 26 major cities in the first week of 2022 was 50 million yuan, a decrease of 5.97 billion yuan compared with the 53rd week of 2021. The average premium rate decreased. The average premium rate of land transaction was 0.5%, down 8.1 percentage points from the 53rd week of 2021. The number of land flow photos is 0.
Announcement of key companies. 5I5J Holding Group Co.Ltd(000560) , Lander Sports Development Co.Ltd(000558) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) important shareholders reduce their shares of the company. Shenzhen Heungkong Holding Co.Ltd(600162) , Vantone Neo Development Group Co.Ltd(600246) , Greattown Holdings Ltd(600094) repurchase the company’s shares. The Hefei Urban Construction Development Co.Ltd(002208) , Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) directors and senior executives are transferred. Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) issue the first phase of ultra short-term financing bonds in 2022.
Investment proposal and investment object
Affected by the new year’s Day holiday at the beginning of the year, the sales of new and second-hand houses fell, and the weak recovery of the industry was not stable. The first quarter is the off-season of annual sales and the peak of debt maturity. The downward inertia of the market is still. In addition, the current policy supervision is not friendly to low credit enterprises. We believe that individual risks of some real estate enterprises are still possible to break out. Under the bottom line of no systemic risk and the pressure of steady growth, we expect that more favorable policies may be brewing at that time. Under the dual pressure of market sales and credit environment, the liquidation of the industry may accelerate. We expect the excess return brought by M & A to exceed market expectations, and continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair of real estate enterprises with financial security. We are optimistic about the first-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2, buy) and Poly Real Estate (600048, buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383, buy) and Xuhui holding group (00884, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industries with rapid growth and strong consumption attributes. We recommend Xuhui Yongsheng service (01995, buy), Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) (001914, overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968, buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy), Baolong Commerce (09909, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly.
