\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 122 Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) )
The company is one of the main R & D and production bases of high-end titanium alloy rod, wire and forging stock in China; At present, it is the only low-temperature superconducting wire rod manufacturer in China and the only whole process manufacturer of niobium titanium ingot rod, superconducting wire rod and superconducting magnet in the world; It is also one of the key R & D and production enterprises of high-performance superalloy materials in China. We are optimistic about the company’s three business layouts of “titanium alloy + superconducting material + superalloy”. In the near future, titanium alloy benefits from the high boom demand of aircraft, in the medium term, superalloy benefits from the long slope and thick snow of aeroengine, and superconducting material benefits from broad application prospects in the long term.
In terms of titanium alloy, the company’s products have passed the certification of customers such as aviation industry group and China Aviation Development Group, and have been applied to multiple types of equipment in batches. Driven by factors such as the large volume of military aviation equipment and the increase of the proportion of titanium alloy in new equipment, the company has a strong demand for titanium alloy. In addition, the company has also passed the qualification certification of COMAC Ti6Al4V titanium alloy materials. In the future, as domestic commercial aircraft enter the batch production stage, the company will gradually realize the batch delivery of relevant products.
In terms of superconducting products, the company’s customers include Ge, Siemens, China Academy of surgery, etc. the magnets for MRI and MCZ have been supplied in batch. It has core advantages in low-temperature superconducting materials such as NbTi and Nb3Sn and high-temperature superconducting materials such as Bi-2223, Bi-2212 and MgB2. In the future, with the continuous expansion of superconducting technology in the fields of medical treatment, energy, transportation, national defense and so on, the market prospect of superconducting products of the company is broad.
In terms of superalloys, the company is one of the emerging suppliers of high-performance superalloy materials in China. It has successively undertaken the research and development tasks of a variety of superalloy materials on China’s key national defense equipment, and continued to break through the engineering preparation technology of superalloy materials for aeroengines and gas turbines. Typical products have been delivered in small quantities to many models.
Profit forecast: comprehensively considering the company’s production expansion and the pace of capacity release, the improvement of gross profit margin caused by economies of scale, and the proper control of expenses in various periods, the company’s revenue in 20212022 will be adjusted from 3.702/5.553 billion yuan to 2.935/4.096 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 482671 million yuan to 7431022 million yuan, and EPS from 0.71/1.09 yuan to 1.60/2.20 yuan. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.935/4.96/5.673 billion, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 743/10.22/1.507 billion, the EPS will be RMB 1.60/2.20/3.25, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 76.00/share on April 13, 2022, and the PE will be 47 / 34 / 23 times. From “overweight” to “buy”.
Risk warning: the risk that the completion and release progress of new capacity is less than expected, the risk that the development of titanium alloy in the field of aeroengine is less than expected, the risk that the certification progress of Superalloy products is less than expected, and the business risk caused by the price fluctuation of upstream raw materials.
