Industry views and investment suggestions
In the first week of the year, A-Shares continued to adjust, the gem fell 6.8%, and the leisure service industry outperformed the market. The epidemic situation in China continued to ferment this week, and the epidemic situation in Xi’an improved, but the risk of transmission in Henan increased, and sporadic cases occurred in Shenzhen and Tianjin. Boosted by the concept of meta universe this week, Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) rose by 17.3% again, and individual stocks of some hotels and leisure scenic spots gained good gains, but fell. With the Winter Olympics approaching, we should pay attention to the investment opportunities in ice and snow sports. Less than a month before the opening of the Winter Olympic Games, ice and snow sports catalyzed by the Winter Olympic Games have attracted market attention. In 2019, the opinions of the State Council on taking the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games as an opportunity to vigorously develop Korean ice and snow sports proposed to vigorously popularize mass ice and snow sports, widely carry out youth ice and snow sports, and accelerate the development of ice and snow industry. Recently, China Tourism Research Institute released the development report of China’s ice and snow tourism (2022). Stimulated by the supply and demand of Beijing Winter Olympic Games, the return of ice and snow outbound tourism, the upgrading of tourism consumption and the national layout of ice and snow facilities, it is expected that the number of ice and snow leisure tourists in China will reach 305 million in the ice and snow season from 2021 to 2022, and the income of ice and snow leisure tourism in China is expected to reach 323.3 billion yuan. According to the flying pig data, since December, ice and snow themed tour bookings across the country have maintained an average weekly growth of 46%, and rich and diverse ice and snow activities have become the most popular leisure tourism project this winter. The amount of duty-free shopping on outlying islands during the new year’s Day holiday is 600 million, and the per capita consumption is nearly 10000 yuan. According to the data of Haikou customs, the amount of duty-free shopping on outlying islands under supervision during the three-day holiday was 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%; The number of shopping pieces was 739000, a year-on-year increase of 9.74%; Per capita consumption was 9740 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Under the background of repeated outbreaks in China, the tax-free data on New Year’s day still achieved year-on-year growth. On the one hand, there was a strong demand for tourism consumption during the small and long holidays on New Year’s day. On the other hand, duty-free retailers such as China tax exemption and overseas tourism investment increased their activities to tap the consumption potential, driving a significant increase in per capita consumption. In 2021, with the continuous fluctuation of the epidemic situation in China, the total sales of duty-free shops on outlying islands reached 60.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84%, and the duty-free sales of lifting workers reached 50.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83%. Continue to be optimistic about the growth of tax-free sales during the Spring Festival.
Investment suggestion: continue to be optimistic about the development space of China’s tax-free industry and continue to recommend China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . In addition, the industry leaders Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) in the fine molecule industry are recommended.
Plate Market
In the current period (from January 4 to January 7), the leisure service industry index fell by 0.86%, and the CSI 300 index fell by 2.39% in the same period. The leisure service industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.53pct, ranking 16th among the 28 Shenwan industries. The three stocks with the largest increase focused on this week are Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) (+ 17.3%), Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (+ 14.86%) and Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) (+ 11.31%); The three stocks with the largest declines were Beijing Fengshangshiji Culture Media Co.Ltd(300860) (- 6.91%), Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) (- 6.12%) and Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) (- 4.76%).
Risk tips: systemic risk, epidemic risk, policy promotion, lower than expected enterprise operation, etc.
