The auto sector continued to weaken this week, led by new energy vehicles and smart cars. CITIC auto index fell 3.62% this week, 1.23 percentage points behind the market, ranking 22nd among 30 industries; Among them, passenger cars fell 6.00%, auto parts fell 2.96%, new energy vehicle index fell 8.44%, and smart vehicle index fell 6.21%. The automobile sector has been continuously adjusted. First, the overall market has switched from high valuation and high view to low value since the beginning of the year. Second, the price rise of upstream materials such as lithium carbonate triggered the market’s expectation of price rise of new energy vehicles, superimposed subsidies and declined, affecting the demand for new energy vehicles. Third, the data of the passenger Federation weakened in the fifth week due to sporadic epidemic.
Ces2022 opened and intelligent driving became the biggest hot spot. On January 5, the annual CES was opened. Chip companies, automatic driving companies, lidar companies and vehicle enterprises showed the latest products and technologies one after another, and intelligent driving became the biggest hot spot. 1) intelligent driving, NVIDIA released DRIVEHyperion8 automatic driving platform, Qualcomm brought Xiaolong digital chassis, and announced cooperation with 37 car companies. ZF launched L3 automatic driving system. 2) In terms of intelligent driving hardware, Mobileye released three system integration chips, Ambarella released AI domain controller CV3 series chips, Valeo appeared in the third generation scanning lidar and new NFL lidar, Suteng juchuang’s new 128 line mechanical lidar was the world’s first show, and innovusion appeared with lidar Falcon and Robin; 3) In terms of auto enterprises, Volvo announced that it would take the lead in launching the highly autonomous driving function – ridepilot in California, and polar krypton announced that it would cooperate with Mobileye to develop a new consumer grade pure electric vehicle with L4 autonomous driving capability, equipped with six eyeq5 system integration chips, which is expected to be launched in China as early as 2024.
In December, the passenger car wholesale sales of the Federation of passenger cars increased by 6% month on month, and the retail sales increased by 19% month on month. From the perspective of wholesale, the average daily sales in the first five weeks were 46000, 62000, 72000, 85000 and 102000 respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of – 12.0%, – 3.1%, 4.6%, 19.5% and – 17.1% respectively, and a significant year-on-year decrease in the fifth week; In December, the average daily wholesale sales was 74000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.4% and a month on month increase of 6%. From the retail perspective, the average daily sales volume in the first five weeks were 40000, 53000, 67000, 82000 and 109000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.5%, – 7.0%, – 8.3%, 6.2% and – 9.1% respectively, and also fell in the fifth week; In December, the average daily retail sales was 70000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.7% and a month on month increase of 19%. Overall, the wholesale and retail sales were not strong in the fifth week of December. The epidemic situation in Ningbo, Xi’an and other places affected the production scheduling of main engine plants and consumers’ willingness to buy cars to a certain extent.
Investment suggestions: 1) continue to be optimistic about auto parts and pay attention to: ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Intelligent driving industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , sunny optical technology, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Nextel, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ; 2) The trend of independent rise is clear. The vehicle manufacturer suggests paying attention to Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and the undervalued value Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
