[Key words this week]: European electric vehicle sales hit a new high in December; Determination of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) and Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) concentrate pricing; The spot price of lithium carbonate exceeded 300000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide exceeds 900000 yuan / ton; Lithium and rare earth prices deviated further from stock prices.
Market review: 1) in terms of small metals, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached a new high in October, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was close to 20%, the prosperity of the industry continued to rise, and the prosperity trend of cobalt, lithium and rare earth in the upstream of new energy vehicles was clear and continued to be optimistic: ① the inventory of lithium ore in the industry was low, the reluctance to sell in the upstream was obvious, the price accelerated, and the lithium concentrate increased by 7.1% month on month this week, Battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 10.3% month on month, and the price of electric carbon has approached 300000; ② With the outbreak of the epidemic in South Africa, cobalt prices accelerated upward, and metal cobalt rose by 2.8% this week; ③ In terms of rare earth, the supply of raw materials was tight. The Ministry of industry and information technology disclosed the motor energy efficiency improvement plan and raised the demand expectation of rare earth. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 6.4% this week. 2) The new non-agricultural data of the United States in December was less than expected, the ban on coal export in Indonesia exacerbated the market's concern about the shortage of energy supply, and the global epidemic increased sharply: ① base metals, LME, aluminum and copper increased by 3.9% and - 0.8% respectively; ② The real yield of ten-year US bonds increased from -1.06% - 0.72%, and Comex gold closed at US $1797.4/oz, down 1.71% month on month.
Macro "three factors" summary: the policy direction of China's steady growth is clear; Us ism manufacturing PMI fell in December, and the new non-agricultural data in December was lower than expected; The overseas epidemic has accelerated; Specifically: 1) in China, the central economic work conference emphasized "stability first and seek progress while maintaining stability", and LPR showed "asymmetric interest rate reduction". In December, the PMI of Caixin manufacturing industry rebounded slightly. In December, the PMI index of Caixin manufacturing industry was 50.9 (the former value was 49.9), of which the comprehensive PMI output index of Caixin China was 53.0 (the former value was 51.2), Caixin China's PMI business activity index of service industry was 53.1 (the previous value was 52.1); In December, China's official foreign exchange reserve was US $3.25 trillion (the previous value was US $322 million); 2) In the United States, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell in December, and the new non-agricultural data in December was lower than expected. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States in December was 58.7 (former value 61.1), and the ISM non manufacturing PMI was 62.0 (former value 69.1); In the third quarter, the annualized rate of the final value of GDP was 2.3% (the previous value was 6.7%); In November, new orders for durable goods increased by 257.395 billion US dollars (the previous value was 259.457 billion US dollars), a month on month increase of 2.56% (the previous value was 0.14%); In December, the number of new non-agricultural employment increased by 199000 on a quarterly basis, down 11000 on a month on month basis; The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 207000, up 7000 month on month. 3) In November, the PPI of the EU increased year-on-year, and the epidemic warmed up. In December, the PMI of manufacturing industry in the euro area is expected to be 58.0 (the former value is 58.4), and the PMI of service industry is expected to be 53.3 (the former value is 55.9); In November, the EU PPI was 23.7% year-on-year (the previous value was 21.8%); The quarterly adjustment of EU economic climate index in December was 114.5 (the previous value was 116.6); This week, the United Kingdom, Germany and France added 493103.0 cases of covid-19 diagnosis on a daily basis, an increase of 121930.6 cases compared with last week, and the epidemic is heating up. 4) The rhythm of each economy is different, but the decline direction of the global overall prosperity remains unchanged. In December, the global pmi54 3. Annular lift 0.50.
Base metals: Indonesia's coal export ban exacerbates market concerns about energy supply shortages
After the hawkish signal was released from the minutes of the Fed meeting, the dollar index rose slightly and the focus of copper price moved down slightly; In addition, the news of Indonesia's coal export ban fermented during the new year's Day holiday, which once again exacerbated the market's concerns about the shortage of energy supply and supported the rise of base metal prices. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by - 0.8%, 3.9%, 0.2%, 0.1%, 2.6% and 0.3% respectively this week, and the price rose as a whole.
1. For electrolytic copper, as the overhaul of copper smelters basically came to an end at the end of the year, and some smelters quickly recovered from the accident, superimposing the effect of speeding up production at the end of the year, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 6.6% month on month in December, far exceeding the market expectation; On the raw material side, it is expected that the tight situation of crude copper will be relieved simultaneously with the easing of the global supply chain; At present, the impact of the Winter Olympics on northern smelters is limited. The social inventory of electrolytic copper on Wednesday was 78400 tons, and the weekly inventory was 3300 tons.
2. For electrolytic aluminum, at the supply side, China's electrolytic aluminum output continues to operate at a low level; On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream consumption gradually weakens. At the same time, the aggravation of the epidemic in Henan and the possible production restriction requirements of the Winter Olympic Games make it possible for downstream consumption to further weaken before the Spring Festival. However, the price of alumina fell, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum rebounded rapidly. The immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum was 16402 yuan / ton, down 0.73% month on month, and the profit was 3088 yuan / ton, up 21.24% month on month. This week, China's aluminum ingot inventory in eight places totaled 776000 tons, and 23000 tons went to the warehouse every week.
3. For zinc ingots, overseas, the price of natural gas in Europe rose sharply again, the problem of energy shortage returned to the market vision, and the immediate cost of European zinc smelters rose, boosting the price of zinc; In terms of Shanghai zinc, after the new year's day, the inventory did not see a significant accumulation, reflecting that the current consumption was better than the market expectation. At the same time, the current Shanghai Lun ratio continued to decline, the loss of Chinese smelters in purchasing imported zinc concentrate expanded, and China's processing fees continued to decline. The total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places this week was 125500 tons, with a week-on-week rise of 5400 tons.
Upstream lithium battery raw materials: the prosperity of the global new energy industry continues to rise, the electric vehicle market in China, the United States and Europe resonates, and the upward trend of upstream raw material prices continues to strengthen:
1. The demand boom continued to rise and the price transmission was smooth: 1) the sales volume of six European countries (Britain, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden and Italy) totaled 203100 vehicles in December, with a year-on-year increase of 12% and a month on month increase of 32%, reaching a record high. 2) In December, the output of cathode materials continued to increase. The output of ternary materials in China was 40200 tons, an increase of 7.39% month on month; The output of lithium iron phosphate was 56000 tons, an increase of 11.8% month on month. The production scheduling of new energy vehicle industry chain continued to increase.
2. The end of the year is approaching, and the price of lithium carbonate is accelerating upward again. 1) On the price side, battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 10.3% over last week, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide increased by 10.1% over last week, and the futures price of lithium carbonate in Wuxi electronic disk reached 390000 yuan / ton. 2) On the supply side, Chinese smelters have entered the period of centralized maintenance at the end of the year. The epidemic broke out in Argentina, and the supply at home and abroad may be reduced in stock, with obvious bullish sentiment in the upstream; 3) On the demand side, the downstream goods preparation is not optimistic at present. It is expected that the demand for orders and procurement will continue, the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide will increase, the demand for causticization will increase, and lithium hydroxide will continue to rise; 4) Lithium salt inventory: lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 6.02% month on month from 5533 to 5200 tons; Lithium hydroxide inventory decreased by 1.5% month on month from 397 to 391 tons. 5) For China's lithium resources, GuoXuan plans an annual output of 50000 tons of lithium battery grade lithium carbonate project and an annual output of 7.5 million tons of lithium ore mining and beneficiation project in Fengxin, Yichun. Among them, 20000 tons of lithium carbonate and 3 million tons of lithium ore mining and beneficiation projects will be constructed in phase I. The construction period is expected to be one year, which will not affect the 22-year supply and demand structure.
3. With the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further.
1) On the price side, the quotations of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.7% and 0.7% month on month respectively, and the tax included price of metal cobalt in China has reached 540000 yuan / ton; China's metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide rose by 2.8%, 1.0% and 2.9% respectively. 2) On the supply side, in November 2021, China imported 8100 metal tons of cobalt raw materials, up 50% month on month and down 10% year on year. The epidemic broke out in South Africa. According to the feedback of the industrial chain, the uncertainty of shipping schedule will continue until at least the first quarter of 2022; 3) Smelting enterprises are short of raw materials. At present, the price inversion of Chinese and overseas electric cobalt manufacturers is serious, the production scheduling of electric cobalt enterprises is reduced or stopped, the inventory of traders remains low, cemented carbide and other manufacturers begin to replenish the inventory, and the price continues to rise.
4. Reshaping the pattern of rare earth permanent magnet industry. 1) In the spot market, the quotation of praseodymium neodymium oxide in China increased by 6.4% to 900000 yuan / ton compared with last week; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide increased by 0.3% and 0.9% compared with last week. The spot circulation in the market is limited, and large manufacturers are willing to support the price. 2) In terms of inventory, praseodymium neodymium oxide inventory was flat compared with last week. 3) Overseas mines and Myanmar mines resumed import at the end of November. A total of 1220 tons of REO were imported in November, of which the mixed rare earth carbonate mine was not imported. Recently, it was closed again due to the epidemic situation. 4) The pricing of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) and Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) concentrates is determined. It is proposed that from January 1, 2022, the sales price of rare earth concentrates of both parties will be adjusted to 26887.20 yuan / ton excluding tax (dry volume, REO = 51%), an increase of 65% over the previous value (16300 yuan / ton), corresponding to an increase of about 100000 yuan in the cost of China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) single ton praseodymium neodymium oxide. Over the same period, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has increased from 500000 yuan / ton to 800000 yuan / ton, up 60%; The quarterly average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide also increased from 500000 / ton in 2021q2 to 760000 / ton in 2021q4, an increase of 52%, and the adjustment range is in line with expectations.
5. Nickel: the supply of raw materials is tight and the price remains strong. 1) SHFE nickel closed at 151100 yuan / ton, down 0.34% month on month. 2) On the supply side, in December 2021, the output of ferronickel from China and Indonesia was 108000 metal tons, an increase of 0.15% month on month; 3) On the demand side, recently, stainless steel plants have successively released plans to reduce production during the Spring Festival in 2022. The production of 300 series stainless steel in January and February 2022 will be reduced by 180000 tons and 100000 tons compared with the normal production.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry
1. Base metals: China's economic work in 2022 will be "stable", which will support the price of base metals to some extent. However, from the global dimension, 1) changes in the structure before, during and after the outbreak of overseas economic demand, and 2) the global liquidity taper trend remains unchanged, and the downward trend of base metals may not have been fundamentally changed.
2. For the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as lithium cobalt rare earth copper foil, aluminum foil and magnetic materials, the short-term prosperity is still strong, the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year prosperity upward cycle will not change, and the industrial prosperity is the most clear! Firmly watch!
Core target: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) etc. 2) Base metal: Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) etc. 3) Precious metals: Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection policy risk, gold price fluctuation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk, etc.
