\u3000\u3000 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519)
Event: the company recently released a performance forecast. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of about 109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 11.3%. Corresponding to 2021q4, the operating revenue increased by 12.42% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 14.48% year-on-year, and the performance of 2021q4 accelerated.
Maotai liquor Q4 contributed significantly. From the perspective of product structure, the operating revenue of Maotai liquor is about 93.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about + 9.9%. After the company continued to increase the proportion of direct sales and increase the launch of non-standard products such as zodiac in 21 years, the increase of ton liquor price has made a significant contribution to the revenue. The operating revenue of series liquor was about 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.1%. This year, the reform of series liquor has achieved remarkable results. From the single fourth quarter, Maotai liquor 2021q4 was + 14.27% year-on-year, and series liquor was + 2.32% year-on-year. The performance growth of 2021q4 mainly came from the contribution of Maotai liquor. In 2021q4, Maotai liquor has increased the amount of unplanned quota and increased the payment price of unplanned quota. It is expected to contribute more than 700 million to the profit. It is judged that the profit growth contribution is also mainly from Maotai liquor.
The volume and price in 2022 can be expected. The supply of Maotai liquor did not increase until 2021q4, so it is judged that the overall sales increase in 2021 is not obvious. Considering the storage cycle of Maotai base liquor and the actual output from 2016 to 2017, we believe that Maotai liquor has a large volume space in 2022. In terms of price, it is reported that since January 1, 2022, the retail guide price of Maotai new treasures has been increased from 4499 yuan to 4599 yuan, and the price of aged liquor 15 has been increased from 4999 yuan to 5999 yuan. The price of non-standard products has an obvious trend of increasing in 2022, and the price per ton of liquor continues to increase.
The reform dividend is expected to continue to be released. After the new chairman took office, all the unpacking order policies of the company were cancelled, and the commercial distribution at all levels can be delivered directly in boxes. The original unpacking paperboard and goods specification certificate still need to be submitted to the designated place for verification. This approach gives the market strong confidence in reform. Although the dealers still pay 969 yuan for spring festival goods, we believe that there is room for the company's volume and price to rise in 2022, and the performance may be further released. We are optimistic about the contribution of Maotai's growth at both ends of volume and price to the performance in 2022 and the performance elasticity brought by the continuous rapid growth of series liquor.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: the company is optimistic about the long-term stable growth ability of the company's performance. In 2022, the company will enter the performance release period. It is expected that the net profit of the company in 2022 will be 62.22 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 49.53 yuan. The PE value corresponding to the current stock price is 41 times respectively. Give a "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuations, epidemic situation affects consumption, and the company manages risks.
