\u3000\u3000 Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) (002832)
The company operates steadily with good growth certainty. 1) The company's fundamentals grew steadily in the past and still gave excellent answers under industry fluctuations. The revenue / performance of 2021q1-q3 company was RMB 1.71/460 billion respectively, an increase of 25% / 32% year-on-year in 2020 and 30% / 47% year-on-year in 2019. 2) According to the recent terminal performance, we estimate that the company's performance in 2021 will increase by about 25% year-on-year. 3) According to our judgment, under the background of excellent terminal performance, franchisees have sufficient ordering confidence. We expect that orders will increase rapidly in 2022.
Focus on brand characteristics: focus on consumers and make a combination of products and marketing. With the differentiated characteristics of "life Golf", the company subdivides the sports and leisure track, and accurately locates the medium and high-end consumer groups with high viscosity and low price sensitivity. According to the attention of tmall flagship store, we judge that the current number of VIP directly operated by the company exceeds 600000 / according to the brand attribute and positioning, we judge that the customer repurchase rate is high. 1) Product series differentiation, focusing on T-shirts and other advantageous categories, and playing a combined fist around consumer groups: ① business life series focuses on driving high-quality product iteration with fabric innovation, and Polartec thermal fabric, high-end high-quality down, lightweight antibacterial and other high-quality fabrics match high-end consumer demand; ③ The fashion series enables the brand to be younger, and the joint series of palace culture of the Forbidden City drives sales, so as to deeply express the traditional culture while making continuous innovation; ④ Sports series deepen the professional image of the brand. According to the opening rhythm of comparable brands in the industry, we expect that the company's high-end sports fashion series is expected to try to open dozens of stores independently this year. 2) Multi pronged marketing to deepen brand recognition and popularity. The company sponsors the national golf team to create brand professional image and recognition; Offline coverage of high-end consumer groups through airports and golf stores; Online marketing has become younger, and emerging channels such as wechat and xiaohongshu have increased their exposure.
Clear growth path: store expansion and operation efficiency improvement. We split the company's growth power by channel: 1) offline: quantity expansion, quality improvement, management efficiency improvement, driving terminal. ① Number of stores: high and low tier cities have made joint efforts. At the end of 2021h1, there will be a net increase of 28 to 1007 stores (500 Direct stores / 507 franchisees) compared with the beginning of the year. We expect to open about 150 stores in 2021, and we expect to accelerate the opening of stores this year (about 180 stores in the whole year). ② Store efficiency: pay attention to operation efficiency improvement, get through inventory data and digital tools, assist in order management, sales training and assessment incentive system improvement, add brand strength improvement and product promotion drive terminals, and we judge that store efficiency is expected to continue to improve. 2) Focusing on product promotion and member management, we created a new online light luxury sales model. In 2021h1, online sales increased rapidly by 41% year-on-year to RMB 60 million.
Operation optimization and performance growth. 1) With channel extension × For the contribution of store efficiency optimization, we expect the company's performance to increase rapidly by about 25% / 30% in 2021 / 2022. The company implemented the third employee stock ownership plan to demonstrate performance confidence. 2) Terminal growth promotes the continuous marginal improvement of operation. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company's inventory turnover / accounts receivable turnover days were - 37 days / - 4 days to 358 days / 23 days respectively year-on-year. At the same time, excellent cash flow laid a solid foundation for business expansion.
Investment advice. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 600 / 780 / 980 million, and the current market value will be RMB 13.2 billion, corresponding to 18 times of PE in 2022. The target market value is 19.4 billion, corresponding to 25 times of PE in 2021, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation continues to exceed expectations; Macroeconomic weakness; Venice brand incubation failed to meet expectations; The prosperity of sports and leisure consumption market fell.
