\u3000\u3000 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896)
Hi sports series has sustainable growth, differentiated positioning and b-end education to build brand strength. The company has 7 licenses and 9 corresponding products, and the largest number of class III medical devices in the field of non-surgical medical beauty. Among them, hi Ti / yubai Angel / everay / bonida, as the company’s core best-selling product, is expected to be above RMB 100 million in 2022, which will continue to drive revenue growth. Among them, hi body series is the most differentiated product series created by the company for neck lines and eye circumference. The revenue from 2018 to 2020 is RMB 75 / 243 / 443 million, accounting for 23.36% / 43.50% / 62.44% respectively. It is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 1 billion, accounting for 75% + in 2021. According to the calculation of medical and American consumer penetration, customer unit price and injection frequency, the shipment of hi body neck tattoo products is expected to reach 1.8 billion yuan in 2025. The low penetration and high injection frequency will drive the sustainable growth of hi body series in the future. In addition, the expansion product of periocular indications, panda needle, and the active bubble needle of facial anti saccharification + anti-oxidation water light needle will further open the ceiling of hi body series. The gross profit margin / net profit margin of the company in the first three quarters of 2021 were 93.54% / 69.25% and roe14.5% respectively 82%, and the proportion of high customer unit price products such as angel needle and panda needle has increased, further improving the company’s brand strength and profitability.
Aiming at blue ocean markets such as regeneration, the pipeline under research is rich in reserves. Collagen injection projects in China account for less than 1%. After the intensive approval of three recycled injections in 2021, there is room for a significant increase in permeability. The coverage of the heavy new product Rubai angel has expanded from HA injection to regenerative injection. The main component is HA + poly-L-lactic acid, which has the dual function of “physical space occupation + active regeneration”. The channel end has been deeply combined with doctors through “doctor injection license”. As of September 21, the first batch of authorization of 100 medical institutions and 150 doctors has been completed. Yubai angel has been officially launched into the market in Q4 in 2021, and we expect to bring significant performance contribution in 2022. As of December 21, the second generation facial implant line has been in the registration and application stage, botulinum toxin A for injection and liraglutide injection (weight management) have entered the clinical trial stage, deoxycholic acid (submental fat reduction) has completed preclinical research, and is expected to be put on the market in succession in 2023. The R & D pipeline reserve will support the future development of the company.
Benchmarking the global medical and beauty giants, the growth path is clear and the space is broad. By summarizing the development process of global medical beauty industry giants aierjian, gaodemei and LG chemistry, we find that the giants actively layout product lines in different directions and carry out global business through self-research or acquisition, so as to expand the depth and breadth of users, so as to gradually consolidate the medical beauty brand, shape the medical beauty market and maintain the leading position in the industry. With the submission of Hong Kong stock listing application and the acquisition of South Korea’s huansbio25 in July 21 With 4% equity, the company is expected to copy the growth path of overseas giants. Compared with the medical and American business scale of overseas giants, the future space is very broad.
Investment advice. As a leading manufacturer of medical and American injections in China, the company is moving towards diversification and globalization. The growth of core series is sustainable, and the prospect of heavy new regenerated injections is broad. The company is rich in research projects, which supports the high growth of the company’s long-term revenue performance. Based on the promotion expectation of new products such as yubai angel, we adjusted the revenue forecast of 2021 / 2022 / 2023 to RMB 14.42/23.11/3.474 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 103% / 60% / 50%, and the profit forecast to RMB 938 / 14.54/2.189 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 113% / 55% / 51%. We gave the company a target price of RMB 70.93 billion and a target market value of RMB 153.2 billion, corresponding to 70 times PE in 2023, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: new technology substitution risk; Evidence collection risk; Product safety risk; The landing of new products is less than the expected risk; H-share listing and overseas acquisition progress risk, etc.
