\u3000\u3000 Anker Innovations Technology Co.Ltd(300866) (300866)
Key investment points:
Exceeding expectations: 21q4 revenue growth is expected to exceed market expectations.
1) low market expectation: 21q3 lowered its expectation for the company’s 21q4 revenue due to concerns about the decline in U.S. demand after the subsidy subsided and the sales volume of floor sweepers and other products was lower than the target. 2) The actual 21q4 U.S. market shows a certain demand toughness, and the supply chain has marginal improvement. On the premise of ignoring the impact of exchange rate, we expect the company’s 21q4 and annual revenue to exceed market expectations.
Demand side: Q4 U.S. consumption shows certain resilience, and the offline recovery is obvious, which benefits Anke
1) data: the consumer confidence index of the United States in December 2021 was 115.8 (market expectation 110.7), which was revised upward from 2.4 to 111.9 in November. According to Adobe’s data, from 11.1 to 11.29, US consumers’ online shopping was 109.8 billion US dollars (+ 11.9%), Amazon US saved 5.1 billion US dollars (flat), and 1.126 black five was 8.9 billion US dollars (- 1%), maintaining resilience under the high base; The sales of retailers under the Thanksgiving and black five lines increased by 47.5% over 2020; 2) Anke offline channels accounted for nearly 40%, benefiting significantly.
Supply side: Amazon’s title leads to the optimization of the pattern, and the traffic of the head brand is expected to benefit in the peak sales season
The market had previously argued that “Amazon title is beneficial to the head brand”. We believe that it will be reflected in the peak season of Q4. When the market is flat, the head brand traffic of each category will benefit to a certain extent. Based on the dynamic observation of BS ranking, we see that especially eufy and other brands that are not the first in the category have benefited greatly.
The rise in the price of raw materials, exchange rate and freight may have a certain impact on the profit, and the margin will be improved in 22 years
After 21q3, the company made some optimization for the supply chain problems, but external adverse factors still exist. Superimposed with exchange rate factors, we expect the profit growth rate of Q4 to be lower than the revenue. The trend of brand going to sea and substitution in the past 22 years is still expected to maintain high growth, and the adverse factors are expected to improve marginally.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the revenue in 2021-23 will be RMB 13.104/17.677/23.263 billion, an increase of 40.1% / 34.9% / 31.6% at the same time, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.096/14.50/1873 billion, an increase of 28.0% / 32.3% / 29.2% at the same time. At present, it corresponds to 36.1x/27.3x/21.1xpe, entering the distributable valuation range and maintaining the buy rating.
Risk warning: exchange rate fluctuation and continuous freight price rise; The sales volume of new products is lower than expected
