\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048)
Matters:
Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) announced the performance express for 2021. It is estimated that the total operating revenue in 2021 will increase by 17.2% year-on-year, the total profit will decrease by 4.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will decrease by 4.7% year-on-year, corresponding to EPS 2.5% per share Three yuan.
Ping An View:
The decline in gross profit margin affects performance. The company is expected to achieve a total operating revenue of 285.05 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; Operating profit and total profit decreased by 4.85% and 4.83% respectively year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. The decline in profits was mainly due to the decline in the gross profit margin of carry forward projects. In 2021, the operating profit accounted for 17.4% of the revenue, 4 percentage points lower than that in 2020. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company accounted for 55.2% of the total profit, a slight increase of 0.05% over 2020, and the proportion of minority shareholders' profit and loss was stable as a whole.
Sales increased steadily and the financial situation remained stable. In 2021, the company achieved a sales amount of 534.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%; The sales area was 33.33 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%; The average sales price was 16049 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. In 2021, the newly built area was 27.223 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%, and the total land price was 185.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%; The sales area ratio and sales amount ratio of land acquisition were 81.7% and 34.7% respectively, 11.8 and 12.1 percentage points lower than that in 2020. The average floor price in 2021 is 6821 yuan / m2, which is 42.5% of the average sales price in the same period, down 7.6 percentage points from 2020. Although the intensity of land acquisition decreased, the company had an area under construction of 150 million square meters and an area to be developed of 71.53 million square meters at the end of the third quarter, and the total available supply of goods was still relatively sufficient. At the end of the third quarter, after excluding advance receipts, the asset liability ratio was 65.6%, the net liability ratio was 67.6%, and the cash short debt ratio was 2.3 times, which continued to meet the green standard of "three red lines".
Investment suggestion: considering the pressure on the settlement gross profit margin and the slowdown in sales caused by the short-term industrial pain, the EPS forecast of the company from 2021 to 2023 is lowered to 2.30 yuan (originally 2.57 yuan), 2.40 yuan (2.79 yuan) and 2.48 yuan (3.02 yuan). The current share price corresponds to PE of 7.0 times, 6.7 times and 6.5 times respectively. The company's financial stability and continued financing advantages are expected to improve the spring breeze and expand its leading advantage with the help of short-term policies; Under the guidance of "three stabilities" in the medium and long term, the industry has changed from extensive development to fine operation. With the advantages of operation and control, the company is also expected to steadily increase its market share and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) if the pressure of decontamination in the real estate market continues, resulting in the exchange of sales price for quantity, it will bring the risk of impairment
