\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Core view
Offline: at the end of December 2021, Winona announced the opening of the first department store in Hangzhou West Lake store of Yintai department store to speed up the offline layout. The counter is divided into two main areas: the commodity sales area and the service area. On the merchandise side, the first brand new product compact repair series is set up. On the basis of maintaining the concept of "sensitive muscle", the series has added anti aging ingredients such as desalination, fine lines, and so on, for the first time to enter the product of anti-aging effect. In terms of service, the counter will provide skin testing services and provide nursing solutions and product recommendations for customers\' different skin problems. The company has also been trying to settle in emerging Beauty Collection stores. We believe that moderately accelerating offline expansion can not only bring revenue increment, but also convey the brand voice to more people and occupy the minds of consumers.
Online: maintain high growth on the double ten line. According to the ranking of tmall's double 11, Winona is the only domestic brand in the top 10 of double 11 skin care category. Winona baby entered the top 10 of tmall's baby skin care category when she participated in the double 11 for the first time. Tiktok Kwai, Winona, ranked second in the Jingdong official store and ranked second in the beauty shop of the Jingdong, ranking sixth in the beauty and makeup itself.
Optimistic about the sustainability of the company's rapid growth in future performance. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue was 2.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 360 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65%. We believe that considering the growth momentum after the online double 11, the annual performance is high and the growth certainty is strong. In the medium to long term, the permeability of functional skin care products has much room for improvement and has great potential for development. The company has accelerated the search for the second and third growth points of the company by expanding the category boundaries (including whitening, essence, sunscreen and other efficacy products) and the new brand series (Winona baby, BeautyAnswers, anti-aging brand). In addition, the company has long attached importance to R & D investment. From 2017 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of R & D expenses was close to 30%, and the R & D expense rate was at a high level in the industry. At the end of 2021, the "Yunnan characteristic plant extraction laboratory" led by its wholly-owned subsidiary Yunnan Yunke characteristic plant extraction laboratory Co., Ltd. was awarded by Yunnan provincial Party committee and provincial government. In the later stage, it will focus on the research and development of functional cosmetics, functional food and drugs based on Yunnan characteristic plants, mainly guided by industrialization. The long-term sustained high investment in R & D will provide a good guarantee for the subsequent performance growth of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the company's recent operation, we adjusted the earnings forecast for the next three years. It is estimated that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.96 yuan, 2.81 yuan and 3.95 yuan respectively (original 1.89 yuan, 2.79 yuan and 3.8 yuan). With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, we will maintain the company's premium of 40%, corresponding to 64 times of PE in 2022 and 179.8 yuan of target price, maintaining the "overweight" rating!
Risk tip: the cost of getting customers is higher than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the dependence on single brand and online channels is high
