Brief description of panel
On Friday, A-Shares fluctuated widely, and the three major indexes closed down slightly. On the disk, shipping, banking, steel, electric power, food and beverage and other industries rose against the market; Logistics, engineering construction, precious metals, chemical fertilizer, tourist hotels, decoration, education, cultural media, shipping ports, games and other industries led the decline. In terms of theme stocks, longevity drugs, vitamins, CRO, condiment concept, artemisinin and other counter market trends have become popular; Unified market, Huawei Euler, civil explosion concept, virtual digital human, metauniverse, express concept, electronic ID card, etc. fell by more than 4%.
Message side
The central bank made a heavy voice and timely used a variety of monetary policy tools!
On April 14, the people’s Bank of China held a press conference to interpret the data of credit and social finance in the first quarter and respond to hot issues such as real estate finance, RMB exchange rate and monetary policy. In the next step, the people’s Bank of China will make timely and flexible use of a variety of monetary policy tools, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy.
More than 30 shares of 2021 performance forecast “face change” and provision for goodwill impairment have become the main reasons
At the time of the annual report disclosure season, one of the last things investors want to see is the “face change” in the performance forecast of listed companies. On April 14, the Star stock Cultural Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600715) during the Beijing Winter Olympics joined the ranks of “face changing” in the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit loss in 2021 will be up to 740 million yuan. According to incomplete statistics, 31 shares have lowered the performance forecast in 2021 during the year, and the provision for goodwill impairment and asset impairment has become the main inducement.
14 days 17 city deregulation property market
On April 14, new policies were introduced in the two places. Among them, the four departments of Huaibei City, Anhui Province jointly issued a new preferential policy for house purchase. Local and foreign residents or enterprises who buy houses in the urban area of Huaibei City enjoy financial incentives, credit support from financial institutions and subsidies for development enterprises. Individuals or families who buy the first new house can receive a maximum reward of no more than 60000 yuan. Nanping City, Fujian Province adjusted the use policy of housing provident fund, and the down payment ratio of provident fund loans for second homes was reduced to 30%.
Jufeng view
Pre market judgment: the technology stocks that led to the sharp correction of the gem during the year have shown signs of rebound. We can pay attention to the varieties that were killed by mistake. U.S. stocks fell overnight and will be closed for Easter. It is expected that it will have a limited impact on A-Shares under the expectation of RRR reduction. International crude oil rebounded sharply for three consecutive days, and A-share resource stocks are expected to continue to rise.
The three major A-share indexes collectively opened low, with the Shanghai index opening down 0.46%, the Shenzhen Composite Index opening down 0.76%, the gem index opening down 0.93%, the coal sector opening significantly higher, and the logistics, ports, hotels and other sectors weakening.
After the opening, track stocks such as lithium battery, photovoltaic and wind power fell sharply, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) hit a new low on the 60th, driving the gem index to a new low since July 2020. The semiconductor sector performed relatively strongly driven by the Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) sharp rise. Cyclical stocks continued to rise: coal, steel, real estate, ships and banks performed well, and the Shanghai stock index was once again ahead of the gem index. After 10 o’clock, coal stocks rose by nearly 6% and fell back, while steel and real estate fell simultaneously. Bank support was difficult to curb the downturn of the index, and the Shanghai Composite Index retreated by 3200 points.
In the afternoon, when the Shanghai index was about to fall below 3200 points, the banking sector turned the tide again. But the surprise is that the track stocks: photovoltaic, lithium battery, CRO, etc. stopped falling and picked up, driving the gem index to turn red first! However, after 14 o’clock, coal, cement, chemical fertilizer and other sectors plunged sharply, of which the amplitude of the coal sector was close to 8% throughout the day. Affected by this, the market weakened again, and the three indexes fell across the board.
The market hopes that the RRR reduction will be good at the weekend. Since March 2020, the national Standing Committee has proposed to the central bank for implementation, which generally lags only three days. Lowering the reserve requirement is good for banks and real estate. There is no suspense. It is also bad for bonds and good for the stock market in theory, but it lacks confidence rather than liquidity. Therefore, the improvement of the epidemic situation is the decisive factor.
At present, technology stocks are still bottoming, and the market bottom of the gem index is still unclear. With the help of the disclosure of the first quarterly report, the track stocks with high prosperity can only be said to have the hope of oversold rebound, and the strength is not easy to judge. In view of the fact that the market trading volume has not been enlarged, which means that the capital is still dominated by the on-site flow, and there is no incremental capital entering the market, and the pattern of market box shock will not be broken. It is difficult to sustain the market of Shanghai Stock Index driven by defensive sectors.
Investment advice: at present, the main factors that suppress the sentiment of A-share investors have changed. From the situation in Ukraine in the early stage, the Fed’s interest rate increase to the epidemic in China and the slowdown of economic growth, the steady growth policy will provide support for A-share. The market has just made a second bottom. From the perspective of market style, blue chips that underestimate low prices still have prominent defensive attributes, while growth stocks that overestimate high prices are still unstable factors in the market. A-share box shock can focus on three main lines of bargain hunting: first, companies whose quarterly growth exceeded expectations; Second, new and old infrastructure benefiting from steady growth; Third, aviation, airport, tourism and other sectors facing the inflection point in the post epidemic era. For some of the sectors that have risen sharply, they can be cashed at high prices.
