Industry Overview: in the past 21 years, it is still in the period of transformation and development, the product structure adjustment and channel reform are deepened, and the asset side contributes mainly to the profit growth.
In 2021, the five listed insurance companies realized a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 14%. Ping An, Guoshou, CPIC, Xinhua and PICC (hereinafter referred to as the "five A-share insurance enterprises") increased year-on-year by - 29%, + 1%, + 9%, + 5% and + 8% to 1016, 509, 268, 149 and 21.6 billion yuan respectively.
Life insurance: since the epidemic, the overall demand has further shrunk, the market competition has intensified, the sales of new orders have remained depressed, and NBV has continued to be under pressure; The clearing of agents was accelerated. The total number of agents of five A-share insurance companies was 2.55 million at the end of 21, a year-on-year decrease of 40%.
The 21-year premium of life insurance in the industry increased slightly, and the year-on-year growth range of the original premium of 21-year life insurance of major listed insurance companies was - 4% ~ + 3%. New orders continued to be under pressure.
Five A-share listed insurance companies had a total of 2.55 million life insurance agents at the end of 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 39%. Among them, the scale of life insurance agents of Ping An, Guoshou, CPIC, Xinhua and PICC was - 41%, - 40%, - 30%, - 36% and - 55% year-on-year respectively, which was - 58%, - 56%, - 40%, - 36% and - 55% higher than that at the end of recent five years.
Property insurance: Auto Insurance 4q21 meets the turning point, and the proportion of leading property insurance market continues to increase; The proportion of non auto premiums of China Property Insurance and CPIC property insurance increased.
In terms of auto insurance, the growth rate of listed insurance companies in 21 years was about - 4%, and the year-on-year growth rate of 4q21 rebounded to the range of + 8% ~ + 9%. The comprehensive reform of auto insurance promoted the industry concentration: the market share of property insurance premium of China Property Insurance in 21 years was 32.8%, up 1.0pct year-on-year; In 21 years, it still achieved underwriting profit (small and medium-sized property insurance companies generally underwriting losses).
In terms of non auto insurance, in 21 years, China Property Insurance / CPIC property insurance were + 16% / + 17% year-on-year respectively, accounting for 43.2% / 39.9% of premiums respectively, and + 4.5pct / + 4.6pct year-on-year.
Asset side: affected by the fluctuation of the equity market and the downward trend of interest rates, the net return on investment of listed insurance companies mostly decreased in 21 years.
In 21 years, the fluctuation of capital market superimposed the decline of market interest rate, and the net investment return of five A-share insurance enterprises except Guoshou decreased slightly, with a year-on-year decline range of -0.5 ~ -0.2pct.
In terms of asset allocation, share based investment accounted for Guoshou yoy-2.5pct, Ping An was basically the same, and CPIC, Xinhua and PICC yoy + 1.0, + 0.8, + 1.8pct.
1q22 forward looking: the inflection point of life insurance still needs to wait, and NBV is expected to decline by 2-50% year-on-year; The investment side dragged down profit growth and was under pressure.
Life insurance: it is predicted that Ping An, Guoshou, CPIC and Xinhua 1q22nbv will be - 35%, - 20%, - 50% and - 50% respectively year-on-year (the NBV base of insurance enterprises under the switching of 1q21 definition of serious disease is not low, and 1q22 manpower still drops significantly year-on-year, with increased human cost investment and declining product value rate); The predicted net profit is - 16%, - 38%, - 18% and - 52% respectively year-on-year (1q21 equity market performs well, and some insurance companies have a high base under the realization of floating profit). Property insurance: it is predicted that the net profit of China Property Insurance 1q22 is - 12% year-on-year, which is better than that of peers. Recommended ranking: China property insurance, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) .
Risk tips: 1) the recovery of effective manpower is slow, and the growth of scale manpower is under pressure; 2) The long-term interest rate is down, and asset reallocation is under pressure; 3) Equity market volatility, credit risk exposure.
