A week's events
China: unify the bright spots in the opinions of the big market, and the fiscal and monetary policy will be strengthened. On April 10, the opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the construction of a national unified market was released. In the future, more specific policies may be issued to promote its implementation, which will have a limited impact on the macro-economy and capital market in the short term and benefit the economy and capital market in the medium and long term; On November 11, Li Keqiang presided over a symposium for the main heads of some local governments on the economic situation, requiring them to do a solid job in the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees". At present, the focus of economic work is still to stabilize the expectations of the market. It is expected that monetary policy will continue to work accurately, and fiscal policy will cooperate with it to promote consumption and effective investment; On the 12th, the Ministry of Finance discussed the special bonds of local governments at the regular policy briefing of the State Council, requiring all localities to speed up the issuance progress and broaden the scope of use. In 2022, the scope of use of special bonds will be reasonably expanded. On the basis of continuing to be used in nine fields, it also includes three aspects such as people's livelihood and new infrastructure. In addition, it is expected that the issuance scale of special bonds of small and medium-sized banks will be increased this year; On the 13th, the national standing committee made relevant arrangements from three aspects: promoting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade and increasing financial support for the real economy, and mentioned the timely reduction of the reserve requirement. It is expected that the subsequent central bank will speed up the opening of the window of the reduction of the reserve requirement; On the same day, the Shenzhen talent housing group project has been submitted to the national development and Reform Commission, which is the first officially declared affordable rental housing REITs project in China. The existing affordable rental housing REITs pilot projects in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and other places are being promoted, and REITs is expected to become an important incremental fund in addition to the traditional source of funds; On the 14th, the Minister of Finance stressed that he should firmly shoulder the political responsibility of macroeconomic stability. The central bank said that strengthening financial support in small and micro enterprises, housing loans and other fields would help boost confidence.
Overseas: the global supply chain is under pressure, and the interest rate spread of China US ten-year Treasury bonds is upside down for the first time. On April 10 local time, the poll results of the first round of the French presidential election showed that macron and Marina Le Pen, the leader of the far right party "National League", took the lead. At present, macron has a high voice, but the "black swan" is still not ruled out
If Le Pen wins the event, it may attack EU integration. We need to continue to pay attention to the voting results of the second round of presidential election; On the 11th local time, under the covid-19 epidemic recovery and supply chain constraints, the Bank of Japan lowered the economic assessment of 8 of the 9 regions. Kuroda reiterated his easing policy position and promised to take more easing measures when necessary; On the 11th, the interest rate spread between China and the United States on 10-year Treasury bonds upside down for the first time since 2010. The dislocation of the economic cycle between China and the United States after the epidemic has led to the differentiation of the rhythm of monetary policies between the two countries. Under the background of the rising expectation of tightening in the United States and the increasing pressure on China's steady growth, the upside down of interest rate spread between China and the United States may continue for some time; On the 11th, the WTO lowered the expectation of global GDP and trade growth. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the supply of bulk commodities and dealt a huge blow to Global trade, which may push up the pressure of global supply chain again and aggravate the problem of global inflation; From December 12 to 13, OPEC, EIA and IEA all issued reports to reduce the growth rate of global crude oil demand. Due to multiple factors, such as uncertain prospects for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the risk of European oil sanctions against Russia and slow progress of Iran nuclear negotiations, oil prices may remain high in the short term, with great uncertainty in the future; Data on the 13th local time showed that the UK's CPI soared by 7% year-on-year in March and GDP increased by only 0.1% in February. The economy is facing the risk of "stagflation".
High frequency data: upstream: Brent crude oil rose by 0.31% on a weekly basis, while iron ore and cathode copper prices fell by 2.56% and rose by 0.04% on a weekly basis respectively; Midstream: the price of rebar fell by 1.36% on a weekly basis, and the price of thermal coal fell by 7.55% on a weekly basis; Downstream: real estate sales rebounded by 121.05% on a week-on-week basis, with poor performance of automobile retail under the epidemic; Prices: vegetable prices fell by 8.29% and pork prices fell by 1.50% on a weekly basis.
Focus next week: China's GDP in the first quarter (Monday); New housing construction and construction permit in the United States in March (Tuesday); China's five-year and one-year LPR in April and the sale of existing homes in the United States in March (Wednesday); The CPI of the euro zone in March, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of the United States on April 16 (; Euro 4) and the PMI of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and Germany in April (Friday).
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has further deteriorated, the geopolitical impact has exceeded expectations, and overseas inflation is high.
