Household energy storage: electrochemistry is the best path. At present, energy storage technology mainly includes three main technical routes: physical energy storage (such as pumped energy storage, compressed air energy storage, flywheel energy storage, etc.), chemical energy storage (such as all kinds of batteries, renewable fuel cells, liquid flow batteries, supercapacitors, etc.) and electromagnetic energy storage (such as superconducting electromagnetic energy storage, etc.). Although the physical energy storage method has the advantage of cost, it takes up space and is more suitable for large-scale energy storage projects; The cost of electromagnetic energy storage is high at this stage. Electrochemical energy storage balances the relationship between space, cost and life. It is the best choice for household energy storage at this stage.
Photovoltaic distribution and storage has gradually become economical. According to the current price level of household energy storage system, if only peak valley electricity price arbitrage is carried out, the investment recovery can be realized only when the price difference between peak and valley electricity prices reaches more than US $0.3/kwh, which is still not economical at this stage. In contrast, without considering the surplus electricity on the grid, when the residential electricity price reaches more than US $0.17/kwh, the photovoltaic distribution and storage system will be economical. At present, the electricity price in some European countries is much higher than this level, and the household photovoltaic distribution and storage system has begun to have economic value.
Market distribution: mainly overseas, China does not have the conditions for development. From the perspective of economy, the most important role of household photovoltaic distribution and storage system is to replace the power grid and reduce the power cost. Therefore, the demand for installed capacity is directly proportional to the electricity price. In addition to the consideration of economic factors, the application of household photovoltaic distribution and storage system can reduce the dependence on the power grid, and the initiative of power supply reliability is more in the hands of users. The high electricity prices overseas, especially in Europe, Australia and Japan, the scattered residents in the United States, the aging power grid and the reliability deviation all provide a good environment for the development of household energy storage. Therefore, at present, the installed capacity of household energy storage is concentrated in Germany, the United States, Australia and Japan. In contrast, China does not have the conditions for the development of household energy storage due to the low household electricity price.
Market scale: CAGR will reach 40% in the next four years. While the industry is economical, governments are also actively promoting the development of the industry through policy subsidies. We expect to benefit from the gradual cost performance of photovoltaic distribution and storage prices. Driven by the United States and European markets, the global installed share of household energy storage will maintain rapid growth. The global installed capacity is expected to reach 20.16gwh in 2025 and 40% CAGR in 20212025.
Investment suggestion: the overseas household energy storage market has maintained rapid development under the joint promotion of economy and policy subsidies. At the same time, this market is still in the early stage of development and has no absolute leader. It is a small and beautiful emerging track in the field of lithium battery. It is recommended that Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , which has accumulated in the lithium battery industry for many years, accurately focus on being a small leader in subdivided industries, and Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , which focuses on cultivating the overseas energy storage market.
Risk warning: the downstream demand is less than expected, the price fluctuation and supply risk of raw materials, and the risk of intensified market competition
