Since the beginning of 2022 (April 12, 2022), the social service index has decreased by 8.01%, increased by 7.38% relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and ranked ninth in Shenwan 31 sub industries. In single Q1 (from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022), affected by the epidemic in Shanghai and Jilin Province, the mobility of the population was limited and the travel expectation was affected. The social service index decreased by 12.65% and increased by 1.88% compared with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, ranking 17th in Shenwan 31 sub industries. During the Spring Festival, the tax-free sales data of Hainan outlying islands performed well, but affected by the multi-point distribution of the national epidemic and the local epidemic in Hainan, the overall passenger flow in Q1 was under pressure, the largest heavyweight stock China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) in the sector performed poorly in Q1, and small cap stocks such as undervalued, prefabricated dishes and NFT concept rose higher.
Tax exemption: from January to February, the tax-free sales of outlying islands increased and the discount contracted. In March, the disturbance of local epidemic caused the decline of passenger flow in Hainan, affecting the tax-free sales of outlying islands. In the first quarter of this year, the amount of duty-free shopping in Hainan outlying islands was 14.72 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; The number of shopping pieces was 20.27 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%; The per capita shopping amount was 8372 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Among them, the sales of cosmetics, jewelry and watches ranked among the top three. From January to February, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 12.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, of which the duty-free sales reached 11.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%. In March, affected by the epidemic and the closure of Haitang Bay, the sales fell year-on-year.
Hotel: the demand for the small and long Spring Festival holiday has recovered steadily. After the festival, it is disturbed by the epidemic, and the leading performance of Q1 is under pressure. STR statistics show that in February, the RevPAR of National Hotels increased by 35.39% year-on-year, increased by 15.79% month on month, and the operating performance recovered significantly month on month. Since March, the spread of the national epidemic has affected the demand for business travel and leisure, the hotel occupancy rate has declined, the house price has been depressed, and the operating performance of leading enterprise 22q1 has been under pressure. However, the demand for business travel is relatively rigid. We expect the demand to rebound rapidly after the epidemic. Leading hotel enterprises will accelerate the expansion of stores to seize market share, and the clearing of the market will further improve the concentration.
Scenic spots & travel agencies: the trend of local tourism and peripheral tourism is obvious, and the recovery of leisure scenic spots that undertake short-distance tourism and peripheral tourist flow is considerable. According to the estimation of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the small and long Spring Festival holiday this year, 251 million people traveled in China, which recovered to 73.9% in the same period of 19 years, and China’s tourism revenue reached 289198 billion yuan, which recovered to 56.3% in the same period of 19 years. Since March, affected by the national epidemic, during the Qingming holiday, the number of tourists decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, the tourism revenue decreased by 30.9% year-on-year, the degree of recovery decreased significantly, and the proportion of local tourism reached more than 60%. Under the epidemic, Songcheng in Hangzhou was suspended from business, and some scenic spots such as Wuzhen scenic spot were also closed in stages, with obvious pressure on the whole. In terms of outbound tourism, there is no obvious sign of loosening the entry-exit policy, and international flights remain low. It is expected that the scenic spot and outbound tourism sector will still be under pressure in the first quarter.
Investment analysis opinion: the disturbance of local epidemic affects the recovery of passenger flow, and the demand for leisure is restrained in the short term. However, the easing of the epidemic, the improvement of the flexibility of epidemic control, cultural and tourism policy support have brought about the repair of industry valuation, and the fundamentals of leading enterprises are expected to see marginal improvement in the second half of the year. It is suggested to lay out high-quality leaders in the social service industry: 1) tax exemption: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) ; 2) Hotels: Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu, Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ; 3) Scenic spots: Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Oct, Haichang Ocean Park, China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ; 4) Catering:
Jiumaojiu, Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Naixue’s tea.
Risk tips: 1. The duration of the epidemic exceeded expectations; 2. The recovery of consumer tourism is less than expected; 3. Overseas businesses drag down the company’s profits, etc.
