Key investment points:
Review of the secondary market: this week (April 11-april 15, 2022), the home appliance industry rose by 1.76%, ranking sixth in the primary industry classification of CITIC. Among the segments and related sectors of household appliances, white electricity, kitchen electricity and small household appliances continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. Among them, white electricity rose 3.18%, about 1.5 percentage points higher than the overall level of the household appliance industry; The performance of heidian sector was relatively sluggish, with an overall decline of more than 1.5%; The upstream parts and professional equipment manufacturing sector of the industry fell significantly, down 4.47%. In terms of individual stocks, of the 84 A-share listed companies in the household appliance industry this week, 23 rose, 4 were flat and 57 fell.
Retail market performance: in 2022w15 (4.4-4.10), the sales of China's dual end market of all kinds of household appliances were - 18.44% (online) and - 2.71% (offline) respectively year-on-year, and the growth rate of dual end market fell for four consecutive weeks. From the perspective of focusing on the sales of household electric appliances, the year-on-year growth rate of sales of traditional white electric appliances such as air and ice washing is still at a negative level, and the average price increase has also weakened. In contrast, in this week's new category, the sales growth of clothes dryers maintained an upward trend, with both ends increasing by about 20% year-on-year, and the average price increases were 552 yuan / set (online) and 133 yuan / set (offline) respectively. Affected by the high base of the previous year, the recent year-on-year growth rate of sales volume and average price of integrated stoves may be at a low level.
Data tracking of raw materials and marine real estate: LME copper and aluminum prices continued to fluctuate at a high level this week, slightly lower than the node last week. As of the closing on April 14, LME copper and aluminum settlement prices were US $10277 / ton and US $3237.5 / ton respectively; The price rise of rebar slowed down, and the settlement price fell below 5000 yuan / ton. As of the closing on April 14, the settlement price of shift rebar was reported at 4965 yuan / ton; The fluctuation of plastic price index is relatively stable, and the prices of galvanized sheet and cold rolled sheet rise significantly; In terms of shipping, CCFI of China's main foreign routes, except Australia, New Zealand and east-west Africa, which increased slightly by 0.4% and 0.9% month on month, CCFI of other routes further decreased month on month, of which CCFI of the US West Route decreased significantly by more than 6%. 1、 Commercial housing transactions in second tier cities showed a downward trend in the past week, while those in third tier cities were relatively stable.
Opinions and investment suggestions: affected by the recent spread of the epidemic in China and other factors, residents' willingness to consume and invest has declined significantly due to the uncertainty of their future income and the expectation of poor macro-economy. According to the statistical data, the proportion of Chinese savers' willingness to consume, save and invest in 2022q1 is 23.7%, 54.7% and 21.6% respectively. Compared with 2021q4, China's consumer demand is in a downturn at present. However, combined with the situation of home appliance retail market, the year-on-year growth rate of sales volume of various categories has not decreased significantly, indicating that consumers' demand for home appliances is still resilient.
Based on the current consumer market environment, a series of policies and measures, including tax reduction and fee reduction, home appliance promotion and a new round of home appliances to the countryside, have been introduced and implemented since the beginning of the year, which may effectively enhance consumer confidence and release consumer demand. In addition, in view of the current high incidence of epidemic in China, all cities are successively building shelter hospitals and other health isolation facilities in response to epidemic prevention and control, and the demand for home appliances such as air conditioning and bathroom may increase. On the other hand, referring to the early stage of the epidemic in 2020, under the epidemic prevention and control, the extension of residents' home time can indirectly promote the demand for small household appliances and consumer electronics products.
At the same time, considering the increase of residents' awareness and demand for goods, the sales volume of refrigerators and freezers may also increase.
Therefore, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the following: the product structure is continuously optimized, and the middle and high-end market share is steadily increasing Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) ( Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) . SZ), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ( Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) . SH), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ( Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) . SZ), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) ( Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) . SZ), Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ( Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) . SZ) and the top enterprises of optional consumer appliances; The annual reports and first quarterly reports of Companies in the industry have been disclosed one after another. It is suggested to pay attention to the related targets of high revenue and profit growth.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The market demand is less than expected; Industry competition pattern intensifies; Risk of continuous fluctuations in raw material prices, shipping costs and exchange rates.
