Today (April 15), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. The overall trend in the morning was weak. There was an upward attack in the session, but also fell rapidly. The shock pattern continued in the afternoon.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and the local profit-making effect is general. Military industry and banks protected the sector in the afternoon, steel, electric power and coal sectors performed prominently, and covid-19 treatment, prefabricated dishes and other targets were also relatively resistant to decline. In the steel sector, Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , Gansu Jiu Steel Group Hongxing Iron And Steel Co.Ltd(600307) led, Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Hbis Company Limited(000709) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) and other outstanding performances.
Aijian Securities believes that the geographical conflicts are repeated, the epidemic is still under control, and the short-term uncertainty still exists, but the development trend is good. The market environment is basically stable and good, so it is not suitable to be pessimistic. Of course, uncertainties still exist, and the market mentality is still cautious.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] bank
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) pointed out that the current epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the economy, and the annual economic growth target remains, which means that the worse the current economy is, the greater the demand for follow-up policies. Recently, the national Standing Committee has continuously released positive signals, and the steady growth policy can be expected to increase. At present, the performance of listed banks is stable and the asset quality is solid. Under the tone of stable growth and stable real estate policy, we continue to be optimistic about the excess return of the banking sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention.
In addition, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that bank stocks still have great prospects. Under the background of tightening international liquidity and China’s steady growth, if the effect of steady growth is confirmed by data, such as stabilizing investment growth, the overall market will be conducive to value style. Before confirmation, in the tug of war between the epidemic and external adverse factors and the expectation of stable growth, the market fluctuates in the style rotation, and there are still opportunities for high-quality bank stocks with undervalued value and regional banks with stable growth.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that from the 2021 annual reports of several listed banks, the profit growth rate of most banks was further improved compared with the third quarterly report, and the asset quality performance was stable and good. Looking forward to the second quarter, the actions on the sector can be sufficient: 1) the marginal easing of real estate policy is conducive to the credit risk mitigation of banks, especially considering that after the continuous liquidation of asset quality in the industry in the past 3-4 years, the pressure of non-performing generation is expected to be controllable, and the performance of asset quality is expected to remain stable; 2) China’s goal of steady growth is clear. In the face of the pressure of the current economic environment outside China, it can be predicted that more steady growth policies are expected to continue in 2022, help improve economic expectations and provide effective support for the fundamental operation of banks; 3) At present, the static valuation level of the sector is only 0.59x, which is still at a historical low. The pessimistic expectations of the market for the macro-economy and the quality of bank assets are fully reflected. During the performance disclosure period, we believe that the confirmation of performance improvement is expected to become the catalyst of the sector market, so we suggest paying active attention to it.
[Topic 2] steel
Guosheng Securities said that the short-term production increase trend of steel mills continued, while the marginal improvement of the supply and demand situation of the industry, and the demand in the peak season still needs to be verified. With the re strengthening of the expectation of stable growth in the near future, the allocation value of the steel sector in the valuation depression is prominent, among which the leading stocks with undervalued value and high dividend yield deserve special attention. It is suggested to pay attention to the long-term material target with high dividend yield Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , as well as the industry leader Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) ; Stick to the processing track, be optimistic about the subject matter with both technical barriers and high growth characteristics, or usher in the simultaneous rise of valuation and profit. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . In addition, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) which has significantly benefited from the transformation of urban pipe network also deserves long-term attention.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that steel stocks will continue to be bullish in the medium term. Against the backdrop of historically high profits and historically low valuations, the possibility of carbon neutralization has brought the ceiling of industry supply. In addition, the raw material side has contributed cost dividends again, and steel stocks will usher in a wave of sector opportunities for double rise in performance and valuation. Optimistic about the low value of high dividend ordinary steel, raw materials and some special steel. The first is Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , etc; Pay attention to Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) , Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , etc.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out that at present, the sector is at the bottom of demand, the top of cost and the worst stage of fundamentals with little upward elasticity of supply. Looking forward to the future, with the phased inflection point of the epidemic, the suppressed demand will make up. From the perspective of the real estate cycle, the policy bottom is bringing fundamental changes and is expected to gradually stabilize in the second half of the year, while the cost side is likely to decline at a high level, and the industry ton gross profit will usher in re expansion, It is suggested to pay attention to the sector opportunities under high dividend, undervalued value, low allocation and low expectation.
[Topic 3] covid-19 treatment
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) mentioned that China’s epidemic prevention and control will still be the focus of market attention and investment is relatively active. We suggest to focus on the research and development progress of domestic covid-19 drugs and companies related to covid-19 detection industrial chain. Affected by the epidemic, the post epidemic construction is worth considering. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the progress of new medical infrastructure, which is expected to increase the supply of high-quality medical resources and become the core driver of the industry. In addition, the results of the first quarter will be announced one after another. The epidemic may interfere with the performance of relevant companies. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with deterministic growth in the first quarter. Vaccine and CXO related industrial chains are still sectors with high growth, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In addition, Capital Securities believes that the callback is a buying opportunity, and reiterates its optimism about covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain. The global covid-19 epidemic still maintains a high level of more than 1 million new cases every day, and the epidemic prevention and control has a long way to go. Enlightenment from the high-level operation of the global covid-19 epidemic: prevention should take precedence over treatment. Covid-19 vaccine has a significant effect on preventing severe diseases and reducing mortality. Covid-19 virus coexists with humans for a long time, and therapeutic drugs are necessary.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that the performance of the pharmaceutical industry in the first quarter continued the main line of covid-19 epidemic, and we expect the vaccine and covid-19 testing business to maintain a high-profile growth; At the same time, the CXO industry will also benefit from the transfer of the global industrial chain and continue to grow rapidly. The cdmo business related to covid-19 drugs will also bring greater performance increment to relevant companies.
The agency further analyzed and focused on covid-19 main line and high-quality stocks with reasonable valuation. Covid-19 epidemic is still the biggest main line in the pharmaceutical sector. It is suggested to pay attention to the detection, small molecule drugs, traditional Chinese medicine, vaccines and other sectors related to the epidemic. In addition, the early correction range of some high-quality stocks is large, and the valuation has been quite attractive. It is suggested to make a positive layout.
[theme 4] prefabricated dishes
AVIC Securities said that the definition of prefabricated dishes is understood, which refers to the finished or semi-finished products made of agricultural, livestock, poultry and aquatic products as raw materials, supplemented with various auxiliary materials and pre processed (such as cutting, stirring, pickling, rolling, forming and seasoning). Since the outbreak, Jingdong seven fresh foods, meituan buying vegetables, hungry, box horse, daily excellent fresh foods and dingdong buying vegetables have successively entered the Bureau’s Prefabricated vegetable market. For b-end catering enterprises, affected by the epidemic, the operation is difficult, and the production cost of prefabricated dishes is low and the profit margin is higher; For C-end consumers, the epidemic has given birth to the “house economy”. Prefabricated dishes have the advantages of convenience, quickness and diverse tastes. They have become a new favorite on more and more family tables, and their sales have increased greatly.
With the improvement of consumers’ awareness of prefabricated dishes and the cultivation of consumption habits, it is expected to further catalyze the rapid development of the industry. Ncbd data show that the scale of China’s Prefabricated vegetable market will exceed 300 billion yuan in 2021 and is expected to exceed 830 billion yuan by 2025, of which the scale in the C-end market will account for nearly 30%. According to the five year (20212025) work plan of China Cuisine Association, at present, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes in China is only 10% – 15%, which is expected to increase to 15% – 20% in 2030. In Japan, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes has reached more than 60%. In China’s catering market, which is similar to Japanese food culture to a certain extent, the penetration rate of prefabricated dishes still has great room for improvement. It is suggested to pay attention to the upstream and downstream industrial chain targets: Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) .
Huaxin Securities said that there are many industry participants and there has not been an obvious leader. The prefabricated vegetable industry includes five major participants, each with advantages in channel, product and supply chain: 1) raw material supply enterprises: strong supply chain ability and cost advantage. Representative enterprises such as Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , Longda food, etc; 2) Prefabricated vegetable production enterprise: born in prefabricated vegetable production, with professionalism. Representative enterprises, such as Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) , Zhenwei plum garden, xinliangji, haodeli, etc; 3) Quick frozen food enterprises: have the advantages of cold chain processing and transportation, and have a high degree of production standardization. Representative enterprises such as Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , etc; 4) Chain catering enterprises: self built central kitchen to realize the standardized production of prefabricated dishes. Representative enterprises such as Haidilao, Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , northwest Jia Guolong, etc; 5) Retailers: Prefabricated dishes have become a new growth point with strong promotion ability. Representative enterprises such as Ding Dong to buy vegetables, box horse fresh, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , daily excellent fresh, etc.
