Viewpoint: after four consecutive months of recovery, the leading economic indicators fell below the boom and bust line, confirming the judgment of anti pumping we mentioned earlier. In this case, the pressure of economic growth still inhibits the market. Under the support of policy support and monetary easing cycle, the market as a whole is still a process of shock bottoming. In the past two days, the market has rebounded as a whole under the expectation of RRR reduction, but the strength and sustainability are not strong. Therefore, even if the RRR reduction policy is implemented, the benefits may have been digested in advance. In addition, the automobile industry is facing the storm of shutdown, and the securities sector also has the phenomenon of falling limit. The market as a whole should be cautious next week. Under the policy support, the market bottom seeking process is still repeated, and the strategic allocation of the middle line can still be carried out on bargain hunting. However, investors in the stage game still keep watching and wait patiently for the possible decline of the index before making a decision.
The trend of the market on that day may disappoint many people, because under the expectation of reducing the reserve requirement, it was supposed to be the time of fund chasing, but the performance of the index all day was poor. It was basically running below the green disk in the morning. Although it turned red in the afternoon, it fell back and went down again, and even welcomed a slight dive in the end.
Today’s poor market performance has something to do with two directions: one is that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once fell sharply, which led to the downward drag of track stocks on the gem; The other is that the “bull market flag bearer” rose and fell, and there were two limit stocks, which suppressed the market. Specifically:
This round of adjustment has hit a new low Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) previously, there was a rumor of shutdown. Although the rumor has been refuted, the stock price has not rebounded properly. Instead, it ushered in a new low in the stock price in the adjustment, and formed a certain suppression on the track stocks. At the same time, as the largest power of the gem, every move has a great impact on the market trend; Secondly, the “bull flag bearer” rose and fell, dragging down the performance of the index. This may be quite unexpected. After all, under the expectation of RRR reduction, according to theory, funds may chase blue chips such as finance, and even if the securities sector does not rise, it will not fall sharply. Today, the sector not only rose and fell, but also Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) and Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) also fell, and the sector once ushered in diving.
Therefore, the former is a drag on the gem, while the latter is a restraint on the market. It is conceivable that there is no good performance today.
Of course, some people say that the expectation of reducing the standard is not relatively good? This statement makes sense, but not entirely. Lowering the reserve requirement does not necessarily mean that the stock market will rise. If it is just lowering the reserve requirement without cutting interest rates, it is basically useless! Actually, how about lowering the standard? Of course, it has great significance and role. But is the stock market bound to rise? Not necessarily! RRR reduction is only one of the monetary instruments of the central bank and a way to release liquidity. When we look at easing, we mainly look at bank interest rates. This year’s interest rate cut is not the focus, so the intensity will not be too large, so if the bank does not cut interest rates, monetary easing is relatively empty. In terms of the historical RRR reduction market, there are also ups and downs. Therefore, the RRR reduction is actually just a signal of steady growth. For the depressed stock market, there will be a boost of confidence and the direction of policy.
Therefore, in the second half of this week, the relative benefits of RRR reduction have been reflected. Even if the policy is implemented at the weekend, the boost cycle to the market will not be too long. As for next week, if it is a phased investment, we still need to keep a cautious. After all, the expectation has been issued, but the overall market is weak. Although the policy support is strengthened, the market bottom is still repeated. On the premise of not chasing the high, we can patiently wait for the possible decline of the index before making a new decision.
