Today (April 15), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and the index fluctuated repeatedly. At one time, it turned red, but also suffered pressure quickly, and the decline accelerated in the late trading. On the whole, the main line leading the rise was interrupted, the differentiation of the real estate sector was intensified, the big finance was not supported, the performance of the industry and theme sectors was poor, the market sentiment was still low, and the weakness was at a glance.
In this regard, Aijian Securities believes that in this position, it is not sad or happy. It is more to participate in market transactions, pay attention to the adjustment risk of high-level theme sectors, and pay attention to the sectors with low start signs.
At the same time, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that although the economic operation in the second quarter was still dragged down by the repeated epidemic and overseas interest rate hikes in the short term, the policy rescue and stabilization of the economy were on the way, and the currency hedging was about to be realized. In the future, the market will gradually return to normal, and the investment strategy should focus on “defensive counterattack”.
sector:
I. shipbuilding
Capital securities mentioned that under the influence of market sentiment and other factors, the military industry sector experienced a sharp correction at the beginning of the year, and the logic of long-term boom expansion remained unchanged. The verification of advances received by downstream enterprises and the landing of large orders will be conducted in an orderly manner to the upstream and midstream along the industrial chain. During the “14th five year plan” period, the demand of supporting enterprises is highly deterministic, the performance of private leaders will be more flexible, and continue to be optimistic about the value of sector allocation under the current position.
Debang Securities said that entering the intensive disclosure period of annual report and first quarter report, the high growth of the industry has been verified. The military industry has good fundamentals and long-term certainty. However, due to the low transparency of the military industry, the market is relatively conservative about the growth rate and sustainability of performance. With the gradual disclosure of the annual performance report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022, the high performance growth of military enterprises is expected to be realized, and the prosperity of the industry will be further verified.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that in 2022, the whole industrial chain will continue to focus on the profit-making dual growth logic brought by capacity release: focus on downstream main engine plants and subsystems with strong actual demand, deep ladder level of product models and arrival of batch production nodes; Supporting and manufacturing in the middle reaches with deep moat, strong comprehensive supporting capacity and obvious scale effect; High end weapon cornerstone, large industrial space, strong core competitiveness, and domestic replacement of accelerated military materials and military electronics, ship propulsion system and new ship equipment are the four major directions of military new technology under the new trend of development.
II. Auto parts
According to Monita’s research, the growth rate of automobile sales slowed down in April, mainly due to 1) the centralized outbreak in mid and late March, and the parts and chips had a serious impact on the subsequent supply chain delivery of automobile enterprises; 2) The impact of the price increase on the orders of some new energy vehicle enterprises needs to be continuously observed; 3) Part of the demand for overdraft in advance is expected to be gradually reflected in the sales volume. After Q2 or improvement month on month: we expect that the annual report and the first quarterly report will be the process of the sector gradually shaking and grinding the bottom and fully releasing the risk. Looking forward to the second quarter, the margin of profitability will improve, the sales volume will increase month on month, and the bottleneck of replacement and delivery will be gradually alleviated. We suggest the layout of the sector after the bottom correction.
Xiangcai securities also pointed out that at the current time point, the market lacks confidence in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle sales in the middle of 2022 due to variables such as (1) declining subsidies, (2) rising prices of new energy vehicles, and (3) unstable supply chain. Now, the repeated epidemic in China has caused great disturbance to the production and marketing of new energy vehicles. We always believe that the Chinese market has a wide range of new energy vehicle models, many products are attractive, strong demand and support, and the hot sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles can still be expected.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) said that we recommend two main lines: the rise of independent brands and the upgrading of electric and intelligent vehicles. Main line 1: in 2021, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 15%, and the key point entered the accelerated penetration. Under the background of the bottom support of three electricity technology, the logic of vehicle production changed. The independent brand surpassed the joint venture in terms of organizational structure, supply chain perfection and business model, and is optimistic about the industrial chain investment opportunities brought by the rise of independent brands for a long time.
Main line 2: the core of vehicle electrification is the application of energy flow. With the superposition of multiple factors such as policy, technology and Tesla, new energy vehicles have entered the stage of high-quality development, the product power of demand driven models has been improved, and the technical trend has been upgraded to lithium iron phosphate, 4680 cylinder, multi-in-one electric drive system, vehicle platform high voltage and other multidimensional upgrades.
Mainline 3: the core of automotive intelligence is the application of data flow. Incremental parts include: acquisition end – laser radar, millimeter wave radar, camera and other sensors, transmission end – high-speed connector, calculation end – domain controller, application end – air suspension, wire controlled braking and steering, interaction end – HUD, interactive lamp, central control instrument, sky glass, vehicle acoustics, etc.
one drawing summary:
