Key investment points:
I. under the trend of transition from quasi stagflation to stagflation, there will still be high wave dynamics in the global market. Considering that the valuation of MSCI global index is still on the high side, and the global economy is in the transition period from quasi stagflation to stagflation, and the disturbance of some geographical factors, it is expected that the global market will maintain a high wave dynamic trend in the future.
II. Developed markets will still be prone to some shocks. Due to the high valuation of US stocks and the upside down of US bond yield curve, there is a trend of transition from quasi stagflation period to stagflation period in the US economy. Combined with the accelerated tightening of monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, it is expected that there will still be pressure on the US stock market in the future. The growth stocks of US stocks have not stabilized, and the pressure will further spread to the value stocks of US stocks. Although the valuation pressure of some European markets has been digested to a certain extent at this stage, the major European markets have increased a lot in the early stage of this round of economic cycle, and are vulnerable to the linkage impact of the US stock market. In addition, the European Central Bank is considering tightening liquidity, and it is expected that there will be fluctuations in the European market in the future.
III. there is still obvious pressure on emerging markets in the next stage. The monetary policies of more and more overseas emerging economies have changed significantly, and the liquidity of many overseas emerging markets is tightening. With the liquidity of the Federal Reserve in the tightening stage, it is expected that there may still be significant fluctuations in emerging markets represented by Latin America and Southeast Asia in the future. FTSE Singapore channel index, India sensex30, Ho Chi Minh index, Mexico mxx index and Argentina Merval are still vulnerable to challenges.
IV. at this stage, the financial and infrastructure industries in the Hong Kong stock market fluctuate less. Although the Hong Kong stock market has experienced the release of valuation pressure for nearly a year, and the impact of some objective factors has been digested to some extent in the correction process, the process from bottoming to recovery of the Hong Kong stock market has become complicated due to the high volatility environment of the global market. At this stage, the financial industry and construction industry in Hong Kong stocks are resilient. When the Hong Kong stock market fell sharply in 2021 and the Hong Kong stock fluctuated repeatedly in the first quarter of this year, the performance of Hang Seng H-share financial industry and Hong Kong stock construction industry were significantly better than that of the Hong Kong stock market. Considering the valuation advantages and good resilience of fundamentals, it is expected that Hang Seng H-share financial industry will still have a certain resilience in the medium term. From the perspective of volatility, the volatility of banks in the Hong Kong stock financial industry is relatively small. Considering the current capital construction cycle, the construction project has certain toughness in the medium term. Among them, the medium-term resilience of large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises is relatively good, and the relevant beneficiaries are China's transportation construction, China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) etc.
Risk tips: 1) the Fed's monetary policy exceeds expectations; 2) Economic growth is less than expected; 3) The intensification of global geopolitical risks; 4) Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; 5) Global black swan event.
