\u3000\u30001. Why should we pay attention to the upstream industrial chain of mRNA drugs?
First, the outbreak of the downstream market often drives the demand of the upstream market. The mRNA field has strong explosive power. The upstream reserve in the early stage is not mature, and the downstream demand is prominent. Second, China's mRNA field is in the ascendant, the upstream needs to be improved, and domestic substitution has become the main theme. Finally, China's upstream excellent enterprises may strive for overseas cooperation with cost and quality advantages.
Short term: 1) the revenue of covid-19 mRNA vaccine in 202122 exceeds 50 billion US dollars, and the upstream market is nearly 10 billion US dollars.
2) we believe that covid-19 vaccine has sustainable value. As the mainstream covid-19 vaccine, mRNA vaccine has a promising upstream market space.
Long term: 1) the certainty of mRNA technology in preventive vaccine, tumor vaccine and protein replacement therapy has gradually increased.
2) beyond covid-19 vaccine and mRNA technology will be gradually applied to tumor vaccine, protein replacement therapy and other preventive vaccines.
\u3000\u30002. Where are the upstream raw materials and technical barriers of mRNA drugs? Which companies outside China deserve attention?
MRNA transcription and modification (accounting for 56% of the cost): patent barriers (modified nucleotides, hat analogues, cleancap) + difficult to enlarge production capacity (capping enzyme) + the cost accounts for the largest proportion;
Concerned companies: trilink holds the patent of hat analogues; Megadimension technology is the world leader in modifying nucleotides; Kaiyu biology, nearshore protein, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) etc. have high-quality enzyme products;
Equipment and consumables (accounting for 24% of the cost): patent barrier of LNP production + great technical difficulty;
Focus on companies: leading LNP production equipment enterprises such as precision and Knauer; Maiana self-developed LNP production equipment; Sensong International provides equipment and modular chemical plants;
Plasmid production (accounting for 9% of the cost): the first mover advantage is obvious, and the technical accumulation is not easy to break through;
Concerned companies: aldefron and Kingsley are the world's leading cGMP level suppliers respectively;
Raw materials required for LNP (accounting for 8% of the cost): high purity requirements;
Concerned companies: Merck, Croda, cordenpharma and other lipid manufacturers have rich experience.
