In March 2022, in dollar terms, China's total import and export value was 504.79 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. Among them, the total export value was US $276.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; The total import value was 228.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of - 0.1%; The trade surplus was US $47.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 302.14%. Data show that China's total import and export value maintained a boom growth. Although the growth rate of import and export decreased compared with that from January to February, it still maintained resilience. In terms of exports, the global epidemic resurged in March, the demand for overseas epidemic prevention materials increased, and China's export substitution logic was strengthened. At the same time, although the overseas supply and demand gap still supports China's export growth, the high base effect and the upgrading of China's epidemic prevention and control have suppressed China's export growth to some extent. In terms of import, affected by the new round of epidemic outbreak, China's production and consumption have weakened significantly. At the same time, combined with the high base effect in the same period last year, the import in March maintained the same level as that in the same period last year, and the growth rate has changed from positive to negative.
Overseas demand remained resilient, with double-digit growth in export growth
In March 2022, China's total export value was US $276.08 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. The export growth rate maintained a double-digit growth, indicating that China's exports remained resilient. This is mainly because a new round of global epidemic broke out in March 2022, Omicron ba The infection of subtype 2 virus has been strengthened and the epidemic has accelerated in Europe. Among them, the epidemic situation in France and the UK is relatively severe. As of the latest released data, 6.393 million cases have been newly diagnosed in Germany in March, 2.832 million cases in France in March and 9.603 million cases in South Korea in March. The demand for overseas epidemic prevention materials has increased, and the logic of China's export substitution has been strengthened. At the same time, overseas demand remains resilient, and the gap between supply and demand still exists, supporting China's export growth. According to the data, in March 2022, the initial value of PMI of American manufacturing industry recorded 58.5, higher than the previous value, and the production demand continued to repair, still in the expansion range; In March, the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone was 56.5, higher than the market expectation and slightly lower than the previous value, but the production activity is still in the expansion range; Japan's manufacturing PMI was 54.1 in March. The recovery trend of manufacturing industry slowed down, but it is still expanding. The price factor is also an important reason for China's export growth to remain high. The continued geopolitical conflict and the increased global inflationary pressure have pushed up the price of export commodities and formed a sustained supporting role for exports. In addition, from our forecast results, the rising trend of growth rate is indeed in line with our expectations, but the rising range is slightly lower than our expectations. On the one hand, this is because we underestimated the suppressive effect of the high base effect in the same period last year on the export growth rate in this period; On the other hand, China's epidemic prevention and control measures have been upgraded, which has a certain impact on export freight.
From the perspective of export countries in March, the year-on-year growth rates of China's exports to the European Union, the United States, ASEAN and Japan were 22.38%, 21.43%, 9.71% and 10.38% respectively. The growth rate was higher than that of February. Generally speaking, China's export growth rate to these countries remained relatively high.
From the perspective of export commodities in March, China's export of mechanical and electrical products was US $161986 billion, accounting for 58.67% of China's total export. It is still the main force of China's export, with a year-on-year increase of 11.17%, lower than the year-on-year increase of 14.7%, which has a certain drag on the export growth, including US $13.504 billion of export integrated circuits, with a year-on-year increase of 15.49%. In March, China's epidemic had a negative impact on the production of many cities, and the export growth of China's mechanical and electrical products had a slight drag on the export growth. The export of textile commodities remained booming, of which the export of clothing and clothing accessories was US $25.461 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; The export of textile yarn, fabrics and products was US $11.825 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%; Bags and similar containers reached US $1.963 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.65%; This is mainly because the role of RCEP agreement in boosting China's exports is gradually emerging, which is conducive to further strengthening cooperation between China and many industries such as the textile industry of rceap member countries.
In the new round of outbreak, China's demand has weakened significantly, and its import is the same as that in the same period last year
In March 2022, China's import volume was US $228.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of - 0.1%. The year-on-year growth rate changed from positive growth to negative growth, which was significantly lower than the market expectation. This is mainly due to the outbreak of a new round of epidemic in China in March. The epidemic situation in many regions is serious. The prevention and control measures in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other regions have been strengthened and upgraded, which has a great impact on China's production and consumer demand. In March, China's PMI was 49.5, below the boom and bust line, and production is in the contraction range. Data show that China's import PMI in March was 46.9, lower than the previous value and below the boom and bust line, indicating that import demand is still insufficient. At the same time, the base of the same period last year was relatively high, which suppressed the import growth rate in March. In addition, according to our forecast results, the import growth rate in March was much lower than our expectation, mainly for three reasons: first, we underestimated the suppression effect of the high base effect on the import growth rate in March in the same period last year; Second, it underestimated the inhibitory effect of this round of epidemic on China's production and consumption demand; III. the delay of import customs clearance caused by the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control measures is also an important reason for the sharp decline in import growth.
From the perspective of importing countries in March, the year-on-year growth rates of China's imports to the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN and New Zealand were - 11.95%, - 11.62%, - 9.77%, 6.77%, 2.70% and - 14.51% respectively. It can be seen that the import growth rate of China to South Korea and ASEAN is better than that of other countries, and the import is still mainly supported by RCEP member countries. The supporting role of RECP agreement on China's import growth is further apparent.
From the perspective of import commodities in March, in terms of bulk commodities, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the import volume of iron ore and its concentrate, crude oil, coal and lignite, natural gas and steel was - 5.2%, - 8.1%, - 24.2%, - 5.1% and - 13.4% respectively, showing a downward trend Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in terms of grain import, the year-on-year growth rate was - 1.5%%, while the meat import demand still maintained a downward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate of - 36.5%.
The epidemic situation and geopolitics are still important factors affecting future imports and exports
Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the export growth rate will continue to maintain boom growth in the short term. On the one hand, in the short term, overseas demand remains resilient, the gap between overseas supply and demand still exists, and the resurgence of overseas epidemic is conducive to the further strengthening of China's export substitution logic. On the other hand, the geopolitical conflict continues, the global inflationary pressure increases, and the export commodity prices are at a high level. The price factor will continue to support China's exports for a certain period of time.
The import growth rate is expected to be low in the short term and slow to stabilize in the long term. On the one hand, the recent outbreak of a new round of epidemic has caused serious outbreaks in many regions, and the epidemic prevention and control measures have been upgraded, which has greatly weakened China's production and consumption demand, and the import growth rate may be low in the short term; On the other hand, based on the policy tone of steady growth this year, fiscal and monetary policies will gradually exert force in the long term. The countercyclical and cross cyclical regulation and control force is conducive to the recovery of China's demand, or will form a certain support for imports.