In the second quarter, the core contradiction of Chinese market pricing was the game between strong expectation and weak reality. Game means that it is difficult for the market to have trends and main lines, but repeatedly fluctuate and digest optimistic expectations and pessimistic reality. The structural configuration in the second quarter is "2 + X".
"2" corresponds to two types of assets that can outperform inflation and outperform stagnation in a stagflation environment. On the one hand, there is a lack of long-term capital expenditure in the upstream, and the value of production capacity is revalued; One is growing and is in a period of rapid industrial development, with the growth rate rising instead of falling.
"X" is determined by the epidemic situation and the trend of oil price. In the second quarter, the epidemic and oil prices rose, benefiting from medicine, real estate, banking, upstream energy and oil service, while suffering from consumption and downstream manufacturing.
The core contradiction of US market pricing is that the risks of denominator and numerator may appear at the same time, falling into the dilemma of the Fed tightening to suppress inflation and the economy showing signs of recession. Therefore, the risk of US stocks is greater.
Structurally, the numerator and denominator are under pressure at the same time, but the market sentiment is not pessimistic. Therefore, the prosperity and valuation are more important than certainty. The prosperity sectors such as energy, public utilities, consumer services, medical treatment and real estate may also have capital inflows after the release of the first quarterly report, but the index will bear the adjustment pressure of over valuation and lower than expected earnings.
Risk indication: the mortality of covid-19 virus increased; Exports fell faster than expected; Fed monetary policy exceeded expectations
