Main points
The epidemic situation at home and abroad has changed, and imports are under pressure
The performance of foreign trade in this period is differentiated. Compared with January February, exports remained strong, imports fell sharply and turned negative, and the trade surplus narrowed, but higher than that in the same period in history. The epidemic situation at home and abroad has changed. From the perspective of new cases, major developed countries have passed the peak of the impact of Omicron and opened and unsealed one after another. Since March, China has fought back against the epidemic in many places, and the prevention and control measures have been continuously upgraded, which has had an impact on the production demand of enterprises. Overseas demand is still strong, supporting exports. Imports fell more, or related to the impact of China's epidemic, the demand fell, and the import declaration was affected. The import growth rate of major raw materials and bulk commodities decreased to varying degrees.
Increased market volatility, waiting for opportunities
Short term or near term fluctuations in the capital market are increasing. Given the current inflation situation, the downward trend of China's interest rate curve is expected to increase. China's capital market is still in the stage of restraining, but the depth and length of restraining may increase. We can wait for the United States to raise interest rates less than expected in the second half of the year and the opportunity after China's double reduction to control positions and adjust structure.
Foreign trade highlights may fade
The epidemic situation at home and abroad has changed compared with the previous two years. The impact of the epidemic on the development of foreign trade has changed from positive to negative, resulting in the disappearance of high light at all times. Thanks to the global "top student" status of anti epidemic, China's foreign trade has enjoyed the dividend of successful anti epidemic for two consecutive years. However, the gradual "unsealing" of countries in 2022 will become more and more popular, which means that overseas production will gradually recover and the high dependence on Chinese production caused by the epidemic will gradually weaken to normal. On the other hand, the rescue policy that continues the high overseas demand will also gradually withdraw, and the demand for foreign trade will also gradually decline. China's strict prevention and control has also put pressure on economic growth again. In addition, the high price of overseas bulk commodities has worsened the terms of trade, and the high surplus situation has gradually subsided.
Risk tips
Inflation continues to rise; Repeated changes in the epidemic situation exceeded expectations again; Monetary policy changed more than expected.
