Comments on the economic data of the first quarter of 2022: the development momentum of foreign trade in the first quarter is good, and RECP is expected to further expand China's foreign trade prospects

In the first quarter, foreign trade continued to maintain a steady growth momentum

According to customs statistics, the total import and export value of China's goods trade in the first quarter of this year was 1478.9 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 13.00%. Among them, the export was 820921 billion US dollars, an increase of 15.80%; Imports reached 657978 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.60%. In the first quarter, foreign trade import and export showed five characteristics: first, the proportion of general trade import and export increased; Second, both imports and exports with major trading partners increased; Third, the import and export toughness of foreign trade business entities is sufficient; Fourth, the export of major categories of products maintained a good trend; Fifth, the smooth operation of mechanical and electrical products and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) imports. China's foreign trade import and export maintained positive year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, laying a good foundation for completing the task of steady growth throughout the year.

The slowdown was affected by last year's high base

Affected by the high base in 2021, the growth rate of China's total import and export to the top five trading partners slowed down in the first quarter of 2022; However, the growth rate increased significantly compared with that before the epidemic. In the first quarter, China's total imports and exports to the top five trading partners ASEAN, the European Union, the United States, South Korea and Japan (denominated in US $100 million) increased by 10.70%, 12.20%, 12.20%, 14.60% and 3.90% respectively; The export of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products maintained rapid growth. At present, China's external environment is more complex and uncertain than expected, but the world economy is still in the recovery stage, and the recovery of the international industrial chain has not stopped the expansion of demand for Chinese products.

RECP will play an important role in China's foreign trade

In the first quarter, the growth rate of exports to RECP member countries was much higher than that of imports. RECP will help promote exports and play an important role in stabilizing growth. In the first quarter, China's imports and exports to 14 other RCEP member countries amounted to 2.86 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, accounting for 30.4% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, the export was 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.1%; Imports reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%. On January 1 this year, RECP officially came into force, and the ASEAN market was further opened, which is expected to further expand China's foreign trade prospects. In March, ASEAN surpassed the EU and returned to China's largest trading partner.

Risk tips

The implementation effect of the policy was not as expected, the epidemic situation deteriorated and international relations deteriorated.

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