The growth rate of import and export fell. In the first quarter, exports increased by 15.8% year-on-year, 2.42 percentage points faster than the two-year compound growth rate in the first quarter of 2021, and imports increased by 9.6% year-on-year, 2.46 percentage points lower than the two-year compound growth rate in the first quarter of 2021, realizing a trade surplus of US $162.94 billion, an increase of US $54.165 billion over the same period last year. From the monthly trend, the export growth rate in March was slower than that from January to February, but still maintained a double-digit growth rate, with exports of US $276085 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; Imports in March slowed significantly compared with January February, with imports of US $228704 billion, down 0.1% year-on-year, the first negative growth since September 2020. In March, the trade surplus was 47.38 billion US dollars, up 16.8 billion US dollars from the previous month.
Substitution effect weakened, export growth slowed down, and export price index rose to support export growth. In terms of export growth, March further slowed down compared with January February, but still maintained a high growth rate. As pointed out in our previous report, the impact of the epidemic on overseas supply and demand, especially production, has gradually weakened, China's export substitution effect has also weakened, and the decline in export growth is inevitable. However, in the short term, the continuation of the epidemic still promotes the export of related products to maintain a high growth rate: the year-on-year growth of textiles including masks was 22.24% respectively, further accelerating from January to February. Due to the stability of China's export supply, the export advantage of labor-intensive products is still there. Luggage, clothing and furniture increased by 32.65%, 10.5% and 7.1% year-on-year, up 8.35, 4.4 and 4.9 percentage points respectively from January to February. In addition, rising costs are also the main reason to promote exports to maintain a high level. According to the February export index released by the General Administration of customs, under the condition that China's PPI continued to rise month on month, the export price index in February was 111.7, the highest since the financial crisis in 2008; However, the export volume index is only 93.2, a new low since May 2020. Whether the decline of the export volume index is a short-term fluctuation or the weakening of the export substitution effect still needs to be further observed. In terms of subregions, the high demand in Europe and the United States will not change in the short term. The year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States is 22.38%, up 8.58 percentage points from January to February. The significant recovery of exports to the United States is mainly due to the easing of port congestion on the west coast; Although the export growth rate to the EU fell by 2.77 percentage points to 21.43%, it remained at a high level, mainly due to the rebound in demand driven by the relaxation of epidemic restrictions; Exports to ASEAN were 10.38% year-on-year, down 2.92 percentage points from January to February; Under the continuous influence of the epidemic, the entrepot trade through Hong Kong was relatively sluggish, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.87%, a sharp decrease of 25.57 percentage points compared with January February; Exports to Japan increased by 2.21 percentage points to 7.5%.
