\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Events
On April 14, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved an annual operating revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 78.93%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 371 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 138.63%; Gross profit margin 37.66%, year-on-year + 1.6pct; The net interest rate was 17.95%, year-on-year + 4.3pct. Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 619 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 26.20% and a month on month increase of + 22.57%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 143 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 66.34% and a month on month increase of + 68.24%, exceeding market expectations. Performance review
Full orders on hand helped to increase performance, optimize product structure and ensure high-quality profits during the year: the company signed 4.281 billion yuan of new orders in 2021 (the following orders include tax), a year-on-year increase of + 60.52%; Orders on hand amounted to 4.256 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 77.41%. Considering the order confirmation cycle of the company’s main business, the confirmation of orders in hand can be basically completed within the year, providing strong support for the company’s performance in 2022. Although the raw material cost of the company’s main business products has increased at present, the company actively controls the adverse impact of the rise in cost through technological innovation, improving product performance and optimizing product structure. It is expected that the impact of the rise in cost on the company’s gross profit margin during the year will be controlled within 1PCT.
During the year, the certainty of new and stock upgrading of series welding machine is high, and the growth rate of photovoltaic equipment business will significantly exceed the growth rate of the industry: as the main link of photovoltaic module equipment, series welding machine needs to adapt to the technological progress of silicon chip end and battery end at the same time at the process end, so it will fully benefit from the expansion demand of module capacity and the replacement of invalid equipment capacity brought by the high increase of new installed machine. In terms of new battery technologies such as TOPCON and hjt, the company has relevant product technology research and development, and has been mass imported into the client for mass production. It is expected that the advantages of the company’s series welding machine will continue in the era of mass production of n-type technology. Meanwhile, the company’s production capacity in the field of single crystal furnace will be full by the end of Q1 in 2022, which will further improve the revenue of photovoltaic equipment.
The second growth curve has been opened: the company’s self-developed semiconductor aluminum wire bonding machine won a batch order of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) 20 sets in early April, breaking the monopoly of high-end bonding machine import. According to China’s customs data, the import amount of China’s semiconductor bonding machines in 2021 was US $1.586 billion, which was basically dependent on imports, and there was huge room for domestic substitution. After the company’s bonding machine is approved by the head customer, the order cycle will be shortened in theory in the future, and a small number of customers will buy it directly without trial according to the purchase situation of the head company. It is expected that the company will accelerate the volume of bonding machine orders this year, which is expected to exceed 100 million yuan.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
According to the company’s orders in hand and the latest business progress, it is predicted that the company’s net profit from 20222024e will be 540 million yuan, 750 million yuan and 880 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 5.5, 7.6 and 8.9 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 34, 24 and 21 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the penetration of new technologies is less than expected, the progress of R & D is less than expected, and there is a risk of lifting the ban on restricted shares.
