\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: 1) the company released its 2021 annual report. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan / + 13.15%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 929 million yuan / + 15.35%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 799 million yuan / + 15.95%. 2) In Q4 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 2.103 billion yuan / + 28.33%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 334 million yuan / + 21.46%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 308 million yuan / + 31.57%.
Sunflower seed business maintained steady growth and nut business performed well. In terms of products, the company’s sunflower seeds / nuts / other businesses achieved revenue of 3.943/13.66/675 billion yuan respectively in 21 years, yoy + 5.86% / + 43.82% / 9.94%. Among them, the growth power of sunflower seeds comes from: 1) the continuous sinking of red bag melon seeds, the improvement of weak markets and the expansion of overseas markets; 2) The penetration rate of blue bag melon seeds continued to improve and the flavor of products continued to break through. Among them, rattan pepper melon seeds were increased in some cities for focused promotion, sea salt melon seeds continued to be focused on promotion in some markets, and new orange peel melon seeds were tested in some cities. At present, the feedback is good; 3) Circle penetration of high-end product “Kui Zhen”. The growth power of nuts comes from: 1) the daily volume of nuts in small yellow bags continues to be large, with sales of nearly 1 billion yuan in 21 years; 2) The volume of probiotic products in small blue bags and daily nut oatmeal exceeded 100 million yuan in the whole year of 21 years; 3) The company strengthened the building of roof boxes and nut gift boxes to increase the penetration into third and fourth tier cities.
Revenue growth increased quarter on quarter, and 21h2 revenue growth in all regions of China improved. 1) The company achieved revenue of 5.985 billion yuan / + 13.15% in 21 years, and revenue of 2.103 billion yuan / + 28.33% vs21q3 + 10.71% in single Q4. The acceleration of revenue in single Q4 is mainly due to the strengthening of channel thrust, the advance of Spring Festival and the base effect after the increase of price contribution and channel profit at the end of October 21. 2) In terms of sub regions, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.935 billion, 12.13 billion, 16.12 billion, 5.70 billion and 518 million respectively in the South / North / East / e-commerce / overseas in the past 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.56% / + 21.70% / + 18.78% / + 11.03% / + 10.16%. The growth rate of 21h2 revenue in all major regions of China has improved compared with that of 21h1. Among them, the growth rate in the South turned negative to positive in the second half of the year, and the impact of the decline of business and super passenger flow on the company has been reduced; Overseas affected by the epidemic, 21h2 revenue growth declined.
The gross profit margin increased slightly, the expense rate remained stable, and the profit margin increased. 1) The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years is 32.19% / + 0.30pct, including 34.13% / + 0.78pct for sunflower seeds and 29.26% / + 0.97pct for nuts; The gross profit margin of Q4 alone was 33.43%, up 1.30pct month on month. It is expected that the price increase effect will appear and the fixed cost will be diluted after Q4 volume. 2) The company’s 21-year sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rate was 10.10% / 4.44% / – 0.51% / 0.75%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.33pct / – 0.15pct / – 0.03pct / + 0.07pct, and the expense rate remained stable. 3) The net profit margin attributable to the parent company for 21 years is 15.52% / + 0.29pct, deducting 13.35% / + 0.32pct of non attributable net profit margin.
In the short term, 22q1 is expected to be the base effect and the advance of the Spring Festival, the growth of revenue has slowed down, and Q2 is expected to recover. In addition, since the company began to raise prices at the end of October 21 and there is a promotion transition, the price increase effect is expected to be more fully reflected in 22 years, bringing incremental revenue and profits. In the long run, the growth path of each category of the company is clear. With the addition of measures such as the adjustment of the company’s organizational structure and the reform of terminal digitization, the growth impetus of each category is also expected to be strengthened.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the acceleration of the company’s revenue growth in the second half of the year and the company’s price increase, we raised the revenue and gross profit margin forecast and gave the company eps2 for 202224 18/2.59/3.03 yuan (2.06/2.35 yuan in 22/23 years before the adjustment), using the comparable company valuation method, 30 times the valuation in 22 years, corresponding to the target price of 65.40 yuan, maintaining the “buy rating”.
Risk tips
Product promotion is less than expected, channel expansion is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and raw material costs rise.
