\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 188 Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) )
Annual data: the year-on-year + 60% revenue in 2021 was 910 million yuan; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 540 million yuan + 79% year-on-year; The annual gross profit margin was 80.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.44pp. Excluding the impact of share based payment, it was basically stable; The rates of sales, management and R & D expenses were 4.6%, 6.6% and 15.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.09pp, – 0.5pp and + 0.75pp respectively, which were basically stable. Single quarter data: the single quarter revenue in 2021q4 was 210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 12% and a month on month increase of – 14%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 120 million yuan, up + 33% year on year and – 23% month on month; The year-on-year growth rate of Q1-Q4 single quarter revenue was + 147% / + 93% / + 46% / + 12% respectively.
The laser cutting control system maintained rapid growth throughout the year, and the growth rate of Q4 slowed down due to the decline of the overall prosperity. In 2021, the company’s follow-up, board and bus systems achieved revenue of RMB 300 million, 290 million and 140 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 36% (the previous year was + 34%, the same later), + 38% (+ 39%) and + 99% (+ 198%) respectively. The low-power (follow-up + board) business maintained rapid growth, and the high-power business (bus) grew rapidly. Looking forward to 2022, we expect the growth rate of the company’s cutting system business to slow down due to three considerations: (1) the overall prosperity of the manufacturing industry in 2022 is under pressure; (2) The saturation of low and medium power laser cutting market is increasing day by day. It is expected that the equipment manufacturers will enter the clearing stage, and the pressure of small equipment manufacturers will be greater; (3) Industry competition intensifies. However, from 2019 to 2021, the proportion of medium and low power in the company’s revenue decreased from 84.0% to 64.5%, the proportion of high power increased from 6.3% to 15.4%, and the proportion of nesting software and intelligent cutting head increased from 9.7% to 20.1%. Business diversification helps to offset the business risk of high market share of some medium and low power systems and raise the ceiling. The medium and long-term development of the company continues to be good.
Intelligent cutting head and other businesses are fast and large-scale. Relying on the high share of the company’s cutting system, it is expected to continue to develop rapidly. Intelligent cutting head business: Taking Bosi automation as the main operation, it has achieved a major breakthrough in 2021, with a year-on-year revenue of + 647% of 81.9 million yuan and a sales volume of about 1638 units (estimated at an average price of 50000 yuan / unit). Compared with the sales volume of the company’s low-power and high-power systems, there is still much room for improvement. If the company subsequently launches economic products, it is expected to sink into the low-power market. Relying on the high market share of the company’s cutting system, it is expected to continue to develop rapidly. Other businesses such as nesting software: if the revenue of bospin is subtracted from the revenue of the “other” sector of the company, it is estimated that it will be 58 million yuan and 102 million yuan respectively in 2020 and 2021, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 74% in 2021. The growth level is high. This kind of business is charged according to the service time of the terminal and has good sustainability. It is expected to maintain a high growth with the strengthening of customers’ awareness of software purchase. Welding system: the company has developed welding Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) digital twin software based on three-dimensional modeling core, which can quickly generate welding path. There is a wide space for steel structure welding automation. We are optimistic about the subsequent volume of this business and open the ceiling of the company again.
Investment advice. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 to be RMB 730 million, RMB 950 million and RMB 1.17 billion respectively, corresponding to pe37, 29 and 23 times. In the short term, based on the rapid breakthrough of new businesses such as low-power business, high share and intelligent cutting head, the company will maintain the “buy” rating in the medium and long term based on the strong ductility and broad space driven by technology.
The growth rate of investment projects is lower than expected, and the macro-economic competition is intensified.
